Some Early Season Analytical Optimism

[text_output]There is no question about it, the start of the season was a complete dumpster fire for the New York Rangers. Not even the most pessimistic prognosticators had the Rangers starting off the season as miserably as they did. Despite the recent winning streak, there still seems to be a healthy dose of negativity permeating throughout the Rangers fanbase. I’m not the type that likes to preach  about how to be a fan, so if you want to continue to be pessimistic, there is certainly reason for that, so by all means you do you. However, I know there has been a thirst for some more positivity, so consider this article me attempting to quench that. While I personally think the Rangers still have a lot of improving to do if they wish to make the playoffs, there have certainly been some noteworthy positives and good surprises worth highlighting. Let’s take a look at two particular positive stories, one of which you are all aware of and one that is likely far less obvious.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Pavel Buchnevich[/custom_headline][text_output]If you are talking about positives for the New York Rangers, then Pavel Buchnevich must be mentioned in your opening remarks. This kid has been absolutely dynamic, and easily among the most significant positive standouts for the team early on this season. In terms of your standard counting stats across all game situations, Buchnevich currently has 7 goals and 7 assists (5 of which are primary), 14 total points and 12 primary points. These numbers are good for top-4 on the team in goals, total points and primary points, despite being 11^th amongst skaters in total ice time, and 7^th amongst forwards. Looking at the per-60 production paints an even better picture for Buchnevich’s season so far. Across all situations, Buchnevich currently leads the team in primary points per-60 minutes, and ranks top-4 in goals, primary assists, and total points per-60. The table below shows his overall and per-60 counting stats thus far this season, courtesy of Corsica.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”911″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]As notable as Buchnevich’s standard statistics have been to this point in the season, the team-level numbers that the Rangers have amassed while he is on the ice prove to be even more impressive. Just a quick reminder, when analyzing advanced metrics such as Corsi, Fenwick and expected goals, the team-level statistics accumulated while a player is on the ice serve as a much more accurate representation of a player’s impact on the team than his individual stat counts. For example, knowing the Rangers as a team have logged 3.53 expected goals for per-60 when Buchnevich is on the ice in 5v5 play better demonstrates his impact on the game than knowing that he individually has an expected goals per-60 of 1.06 (for a refresher on what expected goals are, check out my article on the stat from a few weeks ago). Both stats are valuable, don’t get me wrong, but the team-level metrics account for all of the little things Buchnevich does to help create scoring chances for his teammates while he was on the ice, while the individual expected goal figure simply accounts for the number of goals he could have reasonably been expected to score given the quantity and quality of the shots he has personally taken.

Also, as a quick reminder, it is always best to use 5v5 numbers when discussing advanced team-level metrics, so all of the data in the table below is in terms of only 5v5 play (and courtesy of Corsica). If you ever have any questions about any of these numbers, feel free to hit me up on Twitter or leave a comment at the bottom of the article.

When you look at the table, you will see that Pavel Buchnevich has easily been one of the best forwards on the Rangers so far. He is top-4 in all of the team-level shot, goal and expected goal metrics except for goals for per-60. Most impressively, he leads the team in expected goals for % and shots for %, and is second on the team in Corsi for % (shot attempts) and Fenwick for % (unblocked shot attempts). When you combine the standard counting stat production we discussed earlier with these advanced metrics, it is obvious that Pavel Buchnevich, at 22 years old and in only his second season with the team, is clearly already one of the best forwards on the team.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”920″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]And if all of that isn’t enough, I will just leave you with this gif of Buchnevich’s goal against the Bruins on Wednesday, courtesy of Brandon Fitzpatrick, whom is one of my favorite follows on Twitter.[/text_output]

[custom_headline type=”left” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Marc Staal and Steven Kampfer Third Line Defensive Pairing[/custom_headline][text_output]I want to start by making something very, very clear. I am not a fan of Steven Kampfer occupying a roster spot on the team. While Brendan Smith has undoubtedly been awful to start the season (the data shows he’s probably been even WORSE than you think), I would much rather give him another shot then continue to rely on a 29 year old journeyman defenseman who has never really shown any actual ability worthy of sticking on an NHL roster. If you really don’t want Smith in, then I’d rather give a kid like Tony DeAngelo or Neil Pionk some run in the big leagues while you hold Smith accountable for his abysmal start via making him watch from the press box. While I am about to lay out the evidence that the Staal and Kampfer pairing has been fine thus far, I do want to lay down a typical brokerage firm-style disclosure that past performance does not guarantee future results, and it is definitely reasonable to question its sustainability going forward.

With that massive disclaimer out of the way, the data shows that, not only has the third pairing of Marc Staal and Steven Kampfer not been the complete train wreck that I expected it to be, but it has actually been relatively, dare I say, good (emphasis on the word relatively). In roughly 61 total minutes together as a pairing, the duo has put up positive relative Corsi and Fenwick for percentages. The pair has had an even deployment in terms of zone starts, so it isn’t the case of them obtaining heavy sheltered offensive zone starts to pad these numbers. The pairing has been on the ice for 3 goals against in terms of 5v5 play and 0 goals for, which obviously isn’t good. But, the team also has an unsustainably low PDO of 90.91 when they are on the ice, so that goal differential should improve over time. They have an expected goals for percentage of just under 44%, and a relative figure of -6.15, which means that the team has given up a healthy dose of high quality chances compared to the ones they have generated while they are on the ice. Still, even considering the poor goal differential and expected goals numbers, the data shows the paring has been perfectly fine considering the extremely low expectations the majority of fans have placed upon them, especially when you compare it to some of the numbers we’ve seen from Rangers defensemen the past few years.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”921″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]The chart below is from Micah Blake McCurdy’s excellent site hockeyviz.com, and it shows how various Ranger players do with and without Marc Staal on the ice, and how Staal does without the player as well. A player must have loggedh at least 20 minutes on the ice with Staal to qualify for inclusion. It charts the score-adjusted shot attempts for per-60 (Corsi for per-60) across the X-axis, and the score-adjusted shot attempts against per-60 against across the Y-axis (Corsi against per-60). The X-axis is standard, while the Y-axis is inverted, meaning the further you go to the right, the larger the number of shot attempts, while the further you go up, the smaller the number shot attempts. The easiest way to translate that is this:

• Bottom-Right = Fun – The team both generates and gives up a lot of shot attempts when the players are on the ice.
• Top-Right = Good – The team generates a lot of shot attempts, and gives up few shot attempts, when the players are on the ice.
• Top-Left = Dull – The team both generates and gives up few shot attempts when the players are on the ice.
• Bottom-Left = Bad – The team gives up a lot of shot attempts and generates few shot attempts when the players are on the ice.
• Lastly, the red line indicated a Corsi For % of 50%, meaning the team gives up and generates the same amount of shot attempts while the player is on the ice.

The table on the right lists the amount of time each player has been on the ice with Staal, without Staal, and how long Staal has been on the ice without the player. The black boxes around a player’s number indicate the data point for the player with Staal, red means the player without Staal, and Blue is Staal without the player.

Now that you know how to read the chart (I hope I explained that well, if not please feel free to message me and I can try to do better), let’s see what it tells us about Staal and Kampfer. I inserted the bright green arrows to call out Steven Kampfer (47). The red 47 in the very bottom portion of the graph shows how Kampfer has done without Staal. Calling it bad is an understatement; he has been downright abysmal without Staal on the ice with him. The middle green arrow, towards the left side of the graph, shows how Staal has done without Kampfer. To this point, he hasn’t been fantastic by any stretch, but he also isn’t nearly as bad as he was at the end of last year. That arrow towards the top-right portion of the graph shows Kampfer with Staal, and it is firmly entrenched in the “good” portion of the graph. In fact, as measured by shot attempts at least, Kampfer has been the best pair for Staal all year among the defenseman that have logged 20 minutes on the ice with Staal, as the data points for Staal with both Shattenkirk and McDonagh are both below the 50% line by a decent margin.

Now, I am NOT trying to tell you that shot attempts mean everything, so please don’t interpret this in that manner. As I discussed earlier, the pair has for sure let up some juicy scoring chances against, and we all remember the horrible defensive play by the duo that led to the penalty late in the third period. However, shot attempts certainly do matter, and they have been proven to be a better predictor of future results than goals. While I am definitely not a big advocate of a Staal and Kampfer third line pairing, considering some of the other options the Rangers have at their disposal, the data shows that the duo has not been nearly as bad as I, and many of you, thought it would be. The paring of Staal and Kampfer deserves to be recognized as a surprising positive so far in this Rangers season, regardless of how low the initial bar was set that we use to benchmark it as a success or not.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”914″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””]