Blueshirts Breakaway 2018 NHL Draft-Eligible Prospect Rankings

[text_output]With the playoffs approaching and the Rangers realistically (but not mathematically) eliminated from contention, we as Rangers fans are in a situation we haven’t been in for quite some time: worrying about draft positioning over playoff seeding. We at Blueshirts Breakaway have your back, and mainstay writers Drew Way and Shawn Taggart have teamed up with prospect enthusiast and Patreon subscriber George Obremski to deliver our 2018 NHL Draft prospect rankings and analysis for the first round. We will also revisit this article with updated ranks as the draft draws nearer.

The Rangers currently have 72 points and are in line for the 10^th pick, assuming no lottery luck. The Rangers also own the first-round picks of the Bruins and Lightning, which likely with both fall between 24-31, given the quality of the two teams. In this article, each writer discusses one draft prospect they would like the Rangers to take with each of their first-round picks. We also provide player style comparisons for each profiled player and provide a highlights video for each.

To be very clear, these are STYLE comparisons, similar to what Bob McKenzie provides in his final prospect rankings every year before the draft, and NOT upside comparisons or projections. Just because Drew lists Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s comp as Anze Kopitar, DOES NOT mean he is saying Kotkaniemi is the next Kopitar. What it means is that the style Kotkaniemi plays and his skills profile reminds Drew of Anze Kopitar, and nothing more.

For the purposes of this article, we are assuming the Rangers will not win the lottery, and likely will pick somewhere between 7-12. For those unfamiliar with the way the NHL lottery works, you can land a top-3 pick via the lottery system, or your pick will be in accordance to your record (reverse order of the standings). So, if the Rangers finish with the 10th worst record, they can win one of the top-3 picks, or they will pick somewhere between 10-13 (10 if nobody behind them wins the lottery).  For this reason, we have ruled out the consensus top-5 guys in our ranks with respect to the individuals we could choose from to write about for the Rangers’ own pick.

Here are our 2018 NHL Draft rankings; we have listed the individual ranks of each writer, and have also provided an aggregated ranking of all three combined in the bolded column titled BSB Ranks. If you have any thoughts on how you’d personally rank anyone compared to how we did, please feel free to engage us in the comments of this article or on twitter.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2372″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][custom_headline type=”center” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Prospect Profiles[/custom_headline][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Drew Way[/custom_headline][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ id=”” class=”” style=””]Oliver Wahlstrom: RW, 6’ 1’’, 205 lbs, USNTD

[/custom_headline] [text_output]Oliver Wahlstrom is my favorite player in this draft if we are discussing players that could realistically be on the board for the Rangers first pick. Not only do I believe Wahlstrom to be a fantastic talent, but he also is exactly what the Rangers need. To be very clear, I am extremely against the notion of drafting for need in the NHL draft. However, I consider it a nice bonus that the one thing that the Rangers prospect pipeline is desperately missing is a top-flight scoring winger, and Oliver Wahlstrom is comfortably in the conversation for the best scoring winger in this draft class. He is currently 2^nd among USNTD play in total scoring with 39 goals, 39 assists in 51 games, good for 1.53 points per game, and second to only Jack Hughes, who is currently the clear front-runner for the top pick in the 2019 NHL draft.

Wahlstrom is widely considered the second best pure goal scorer in this class, behind only Svechnikov, and he tied Svechnikov for the tournament lead in points (8) at the most recent Five Nations tournament. Wahlstrom possesses a great combination of attributes that include strong ice vision, soft hands, a lethal shot and fantastic finishing ability. On top of all of this, he has good size and above-average strength, which should allow him to be a threat down low at the NHL-level. The one knock on his game is he is not quite as consistent as some would like him to be, and a few analysts believe that he could afford to work on his skating a bit. Personally, I disagree with the criticisms of his skating; sure he does not have the straight-line speed of a Chris Kreider, but he has good overall speed, a quick first step and excellent lateral movement and pivoting ability, which all combine to make him a very strong overall skater. Sure, he’s no Connor McDavid in terms of his skating, but he still has more than enough skating ability that, combined with all of his other abilities, make him one of my favorite players in this entire draft.

Player Comparison: Tyler Seguin[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ id=”” class=”” style=””]Ryan Merkley: RHD, 5’ 11’’, 170 lbs, Guelph Storm (OHL)[/custom_headline]

[text_output]Ryan Merkley is comfortably the most polarizing prospect with a first round grade in this year’s draft, and for good reason. On the positive side, the great Bob McKenzie described Merkley as “easily one of the most skilled, dynamic and talented players available in this draft. Top five in natural ability.” Merkley currently has 67 points in 63 games in the OHL, good for 1.06 ppg and 14^th most amongst OHL skaters that are undrafted and under the age of 21. These production numbers are also good for second among defenseman, behind only Evan Bouchard. Jeff Marek, another phenomenal source for prospect analysis, said the following about Merkley: “Has top 5 skill without a doubt and can complete players other blueliners only dream about…” These quote from two industry titans should be ample evidence to show that Ryan Merkley has just about as much upside as anyone in this entire draft class outside of the top-3.

However, there is also significant risk to Merkley, due to both his game and personality. McKenzie noted that Merkley has “been flagged by NHL scouts as temperamental and a potential problem child with a questionable attitude.” Normally I would brush off a comment like this as just grumpy old white dudes being grumpy about a kid with personality; however, this sentiment permeates nearly every single article I’ve read about Merkley, including this fantastic prospect profile from The Athletic’s Corey Pronman. In the piece, Pronman notes (among many things) that Merkley had a run in with his former Guelph Storm coach Jarrod Skalde and that “his body language on the ice is often poor, and he has emotional outbursts at times.” Pronman also shares a gif of a horrendously poor decision Merkley made where he swung his stick like a baseball bat at an opponent, gaining him a multiple-game suspension.

In addition to these personality-related issues, Merkley is also not necessarily a standout in his own end of the ice. While he has incredible skill with the puck and in the offensive zone, his positioning and decision making combined with his relatively smaller stature have led to some awful goals against that were a direct result of his own play. However, despite his size, Merkley is not afraid to throw his body around when necessary, so perhaps his willingness to engage physically combined with adding some muscle at the pro level could help his game in his own end, combined of course with a lot of development regarding his positioning and decision making.

Long story short, Ryan Merkley is a fantastically gifted offensive defenseman that also comes with multiple significant warts. However, because of these warts, he very well could still be on the draft board for the Rangers two late first-round picks. In my opinion, the Rangers have a plethora of solid back-end guys in the pipeline and at the NHL level at the blueline, and this puts them in the position to be able to take a home run swing on a guy like Ryan Merkley. If I were GM Jeff Gorton, and Merkley is still on the board for the Boston pick, I would strongly, strongly consider selecting him, dependent on if anyone unexpected fell that far of course.

Player Comparison: Somewhere between Ryan Murphy and John Klingberg (apologies for the cop out but there really isn’t a great comp here)[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ id=”” class=”” style=””]Jesperi Kotkaniemi: C, 6’ 2’’, 190 lbs, Assat (Liiga)[/custom_headline]

[text_output]Most mock drafts and prospect rankings I’ve seen list Jesperi Kotkaniemi in the late-teens, with some of the more recent ones having him closer to 10 than 20. However, stranger things have happened than a guy falling from the teens to the mid-20s, and I enjoy Kotkaniemi’s overall game too much to pass up discussing him here. As much as I just described how much I’d like the Rangers to take a shot on Merkley, I’d definitely take Kotkaniemi over him if he were to fall. To be completely honest, if the worst-case scenario plays out and the Rangers own pick ends up 11-13, I’d be perfectly fine selecting him there.

Kotkaniemi is one of the few first round-graded natural centers in this draft, with good size to complement strong production for a 17-year-old playing in Finland’s top pro league. To this point in the season, Kotkaniemi has put up 10 goals and 19 assists in 57 games, good for the second most points among undrafted prospects under the age of 21 in the Finnish Liiga. Scott Wheeler, prospect writer for The Athletic, awarded Kotkaniemi with his “2018 Sneaky-Good Potential Future NHL Star Award,” which is a fun “award” he gives out each year, with previous recipients including Eeli Tolvanen (2017), Vitalii Abramov (2016), Daniel Sprong (2015), Kasperi Kapanen (2014) and Oliver Bjorkstrand (2013), all of which are names that many NHL fans are aware of today.

In terms of his skill profile, Kotkaniemi checks nearly all of the boxes you would hope for. He has good size, a high level of skill, decent skating ability, particularly for his size, good decision-making and has shown considerable improvement over the past year, with no signs of slowing down. Chris Peters, prospect writer for ESPN, noted that “no U18 player has had the same level of impact as Kotkaniemi in Liiga this Year.” He is skilled both on and off the puck, he is considered as a player with a high hockey IQ, and his big body for a player his age allows him to match the physicality and strength of the adults he plays against on a daily basis. In my opinion, Kotkaniemi is a high-level prospect that possesses both a high floor and a high ceiling, and the Rangers would be foolish to not strongly consider him if he is still on the board in the second half of the first round.

Player Comparison: Anze Kopitar[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]George Obremski[/custom_headline][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ id=”” class=”” style=””]Noah Dobson: RHD, 6’ 3’’, 180 lbs, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL)[/custom_headline]

[text_output]Noah Dobson is a very talented two-way defenseman who has been a riser in the rankings. At the start of the season, he was projected to be a late first, early second-round pick, but as of November, he was given an “A” rating by NHL Central Scouting. For those unfamiliar with the rating system, “A” prospects are considered first round picks.

Dobson currently leads QMJHL’s Acadie-Bathurst in Assists (52) and is second on the team in Points (69). At 6’3” & 180lbs, Noah Dobson already has NHL size and has the ability to play a physical, hardnose type game. He has the skating ability to join on the rush and has a good shot and offensive ability to be a power play quarterback for years to come. He has the potential to be a top pairing defenseman and because he’s a righty, he could fit into the Rangers top-6 right now.

Player Comparison: Ryan McDonagh[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ id=”” class=”” style=””]Ryan McLeod: C, 6’ 2’’, 200 lbs, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL)[/custom_headline]

[text_output]Ryan McLeod, the younger brother of Devils 2016 first-round pick Michael McLeod, is similar to his older brother in that it’s all about speed. He’s not as quick as his older brother, but Ryan is still a very good skater and probably one of the fastest players in the NHL draft that plays a hardnose type of game. McLeod is strong on the forecheck and more of a playmaker than a finisher. In the 2016-17 season, he had 9 goals & 33 assists in 68 games, and this season he has improved his numbers to 23 goals & 42 assists in 65 games. As a natural center, he is projected to be a middle-six center, but can also play on the wing (LW) and has some very good upside. His highest likely outcome is that of a second line two-way center.

Player Comparison: Ryan Johansen[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ id=”” class=”” style=””]Rasmus Sandin: LHD, 5’ 11’’, 184 lbs, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)[/custom_headline]

[text_output]Another riser in this year’s draft. He was in the SHL at the start of the season and moved to the Soo in October. Starting the season on the third pair of a deep Soo team, he has quickly moved up the 2018 rankings. The injury of Conor Timmins (COL) helped push Sandin’s ranking up, as he was given the opportunity to play more meaningful minutes. There are questions about his size at 5’11”, but at 190lbs he is able to use his strength to separate players from pucks. He’s almost a point per game player with the Greyhounds this season with 11 goals & 33 assists in 49 games. He is a very good skater with a smooth stride and can play both sides very well. He will not be a top pairing guy, but should be a solid depth defenseman.

Player Comparison: Anton Stralman[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Shawn Taggart[/custom_headline][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ id=”” class=”” style=””]Evan Bouchard: RHD, 6’ 2’’, 193 lbs, London Knights (OHL)[/custom_headline]

[text_output]Bouchard took the role of captain this year for the London Knights and his play increased as did his role on the team. Leading all OHL defenseman with 87 points (25 goals, 62 assists) in 67 games made his stock rise in many draft boards, most recently, Craig Button’s draft board has him sitting as number 5 overall.

What he brings is solid two-way play. Looking at the Rangers defensively, this is something that is sorely needed, he’ll bring the offense, he’ll start and carry the play and carry the play well, yet, one thing to note is isn’t afraid to use the body. He isn’t afraid to clear the crease.

When I watched his style of play, I notice a bit of Drew Doughty in him. I notice how well he carries himself on both ends of the ice. I notice how he can see the play and determine how he’s going to carry himself in making a play. Yet, he’s not afraid to use his body, like I mentioned he is a presence in his end, just as he is on the offensive side.

While I can see him going in the top five, if the Rangers see him fall slightly they should be all over it. You can never have too many defenseman, especially one that carries himself as well as Bouchard.

Player Comparison: Drew Doughty[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ id=”” class=”” style=””]Grigori Denisenko: LW, 5’ 11’’, 176 lbs, Yaroslavl Jr. (MHL)[/custom_headline]

[text_output]He’s one of the younger guys in this draft and someone who has really started to play well as of late. For his team in Russia, Loko Yaroslavl, he has 22 points (9 goals, 13 assists) in 31 games and has added another 4 points (2 goals, 2 assists) in 4 playoff games.

What I like about him is his speed, he has a great sense of speed and he can manage and run the powerplay with ease, mostly used on the point for his team on the powerplay. He’s made it up to the main club for the KHL playoffs, going pointless but making a good enough impression to possibly start up at the big club next year.

The player I see him being most like is Mats Zuccarello. He does have the tools to be a complete player like Mats, it’s just up to him to really put it altogether something, I feel he will have no problem doing.

As he continues to develop, it’ll be interesting to see what happens to him and where he ends up going. He has the tools to be a dynamic player, he just needs to keep his head on straight and if he does, he’ll be fine.

Player Comparison: Mats Zuccarello[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ id=”” class=”” style=””]Martin Kaut: RW, 6’ 2’’, 176 lbs, Pardubice (Czech)[/custom_headline]

[text_output]Here’s a guy who has grown on me while doing research about this year’s draft class. Someone who originally started out as someone who could be taken between the second and fourth round has found his way in the late first round.

What does this all mean? He had a good World Juniors tournament for the Czech Republic. He’s been having a great year for his club team, Dynamo Pardubice chipping in for 16 points (9 goals, 7 assists) in 38 games this year.

What do I like about him? He has no issue being a shoot first guy, though at the same time he knows when to make the appropriate pass to try and make a play. He’s also good at being in the tough areas, doesn’t mind using his body and grinding it out.

He reminds me a lot of Jesper Fast but Kaut does have more offensive upside than Fast. He’ll be more of a force on the offensive end but can chip in defensively as well. Does it warrant a late first round pick? It certainly does in my opinion because he can bring in the offense while being quite sound defensively.

Player Comparison: Jesper Fast[/text_output][text_output]Photo Credit for Featured Image: The NHL, Dallas Stars and an NHL Public Relations Press Release[/text_output]