Odd Man Rush – First Third in the Books

[text_output]The Rangers have now played 27 games this season, meaning they are just about one-third of the way through the year. The team has had a bit of a roller coaster ride of a season to this point, amassing a record of 15-10-2. If the season ended today, they would be the first team to miss the playoffs; although it should be noted that Pittsburgh, who currently occupies the final wild card spot, is just one point ahead and has played two extra games. In this edition of Odd Man Rush, five of our contributors—Greg Kaplan, Drew Way, Michael Carroll (Rex), James Clark and Keetner—reflect upon how they feel the Rangers have performed so far and what they want and expect from the team going forward.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”1119″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Relative to your preseason expectations, how have the Rangers performed so far?[/custom_headline][text_output]Greg – I would say the Rangers have both met my expectations as a team, but have underperformed all at the same time. With as many changes the Rangers made to their defensive core, I was expecting a vastly improved defensive effort from this team. That hasn’t happened (for a variety of reasons we’ve talked about in length), but the team from a points standpoint is about where I would’ve expected them at the start of the season.[/text_output][text_output]Drew – I said on the preseason preview podcast episode that I thought the Rangers were a second-tier contender. Currently, the Rangers are a fringe playoff team, and most of the underlying metrics show that the team’s record is fairly indicative of their level of play. The team has been strong offensively, currently sitting 3rd in the NHL in score adjusted 5v5 expected goals for per-60 at 2.59, behind only the Blue Jackets and the Maple Leafs (data via Corsica). However, they have been a train wreck in their own zone, allowing 2.72 expected goals against per-60, the most in the NHL by a comfortable margin. Keep in mind, expected goals accounts for both shot quantity and quality, so this metric reflects the fact that the Rangers have been bleeding shot attempts against, AND they continuously give up high quality chances. Long story short, the team has been worse than I expected coming into the season, largely due to their poor play in their own zone.[/text_output][text_output]Rex – For me I think they have played around where I had expected on average. The losing streak at the beginning was obviously well below what I thought and the few win streaks the team has had are well above. Overall I thought we might be sniffing around the WC1/2 spot and I am not too far off![/text_output][text_output]James – My preseason prediction was that the team would be a frustrating, mismanaged mess, leading to them narrowly missing the playoffs. As of now, looks like they are right in line for what I predicted.[/text_output][text_output]Keetner – A combination of expected and better. If you think back to how the Rangers started this year, I honestly believed that was how the rest of the season would go. Not saying that from a doom and gloom point of view, rather, if Gorton was going full “youth movement”, it only seemed natural that the team and coaching would have to go through some major adjustments. That said, the team has showed a lot of gumption and has strung together some great wins; something I didn’t expect![/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”1122″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]What has been the biggest surprise to you so far this year?[/custom_headline][text_output]Greg – Kevin Hayes. All off-season, I talked about how worried the Rangers should be with putting Hayes in a position to play top six minutes on a consistent basis. Hayes has far and away blown past what I thought he could do this year and has emerged arguably as one of the five most important Rangers in terms of team success. Not only has he blossomed into a bona fide top six center, I now can’t imagine the Rangers long-term without him.[/text_output][text_output]Drew – The defense. In the previous section I shared the fact that the Rangers have been the single worst team in the NHL in terms of expected goals against per hour. Another stat that demonstrates just how poorly the team has played is high danger chances against, a stat provided by Natural Stat Trick. The Rangers currently give up 12.75 high danger chances against per-60, the most in the entire NHL. The eye test for what it’s worth paints the exact same picture as the data does; the Rangers have been atrocious in their own zone, and are allowing high quality chances against at an alarming rate.[/text_output][text_output]Rex – My biggest surprise is how we haven’t been totally boned at center so far. Coming into the season almost every gut feeling I had was that we were great on wing and could be solid in the D zone but had little to do with centers. The amount that DD has surpassed expectation is great. This goes along with Nieves’ play which is amazing for someone I certainly didn’t know much about prior to seeing him this season.[/text_output][text_output]James – Marc Staal has been a surprise in that I don’t actively cringe every time he is on the ice, and he almost looks like he is worth his cap….never mind I can’t quite say that with a straight face. However, I will say that Staal has been a competent, okay defender, and that has been the biggest surprise to me so far this season.[/text_output][text_output]Keetner – I am most surprised by the fact that the Rangers have had a decent powerplay going for most of the season. I don’t think the team has had any semblance of decent power play since Jagr was on the team. If not, then arguably back to the Leetch years. I completely underestimated the impact Shattenkirk would have. Though not to give him all the credit, as I do think its success lies in other key players; Kreider and Zibanejad, to name a couple.[/text_output][image type=”rounded” float=”none” src=”1124″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]You are King of the Rangers for the day, with complete autonomy over the team. What is the first move you make?[/custom_headline][text_output]Greg – Shoot Steve Kampfer directly into the sun and replace him with either Neal Pionk or Ryan Graves. They may not play on a nightly basis, but I would find a way to get them into the line-up consistently.[/text_output][text_output]Drew – I would trade Nick Holden to the highest bidder. Don’t tell me “we can’t get anything for Holden,” because if you think that, you are naive to how poor most NHL GMs and coaches are at evaluating defenseman, and how desperate some teams are for defensive depth. Now, I want to make it clear, I think Nick Holden has been fine this season, relative to my extremely low expectations at least. However, I feel the team would be better suited long-term if we dealt him in order to make room for one of the kids to get some real run in the big leagues in a sheltered, third-pairing role, similar to what Skjei got for much of last year.[/text_output][text_output]Rex – I’d say two things. I would like to first either waive or scratch Kampfer to bring one of the young guys up to try the NHL ice. I know James and people who know more than me probably have a different idea but I want to test Pionk. Having seen him play against the Gophers in a few games I feel that anyone out of Duluth’s program can make a splash. Second make me the defacto leader of a Ranger’s Pepband![/text_output][text_output]James – I’m King for a day? Kampfer is immediately on waivers. Ryan Graves gets his rightful chance at getting to audition for the role of bottom pair defender on the New York Rangers. Waive Kampfer, do it.[/text_output][text_output]Keetner – Hey Tavares…[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”1126″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]What are your expectations for the remainder of the season?[/custom_headline][text_output]Greg – More or less the same, all things considered. I want them to play better defensively, but part of that falls on the coaching staff putting their defensive players in a position to succeed, and as long as AV is here, I can’t say with certainty that will happen. The Rangers are playing at a playoff pace, and it would be more surprising if the Rangers regressed backwards again as opposed to remaining on the course they’re on now.[/text_output][text_output]Drew – Assuming Zibanejad can return fully healthy relatively soon, I think the Rangers will make the playoffs, and be in that second-tier contender category I originally predicted them to be. Lundqvist is proving all of his doubters wrong and has, for the most part, been excellent of late. The forward group has some holes, but coupled with the offensive ability of the blue line, this team has enough to continue to be around the top-10 in scoring. I also think the defense will get better in their own zone—I mean it can’t get any worse—which will help them continue its slow climb up the ranks into a solid playoff spot. I will say however, that I do not think this team is a true cup contender, and I do not want them to make a desperate win-now move at the deadline. If they can make a trade to improve this year and future years, then fine, but I do not under any realistic circumstances want the team making win-now move and acquiring a rental for future pieces.[/text_output][text_output]Rex – I think the team struggles in late January either due to line changes or a generic fall off or slump. Beyond that I think the team gets into the playoffs as the WC1 and then probably loses in the second round. I think we see a bridge deal (sadly) on Skjei and probably losing Hayes if we had to pick between Hayes and Miller. Finally if we do so happen to win a cup I think Hank and Staal retire on top of the world.[/text_output][text_output]James – They either miss the playoffs completely or somehow make the Eastern Conference Finals. There is no in-between with this nonsense team.[/text_output][text_output]Keetner – Although the team has been stringing some decent wins together (and it has been a lot of fun to watch), I can’t help but wonder if a lot of this success might be ‘smoke and mirrors’. This isn’t to say the team is complete garbage, but I think some of the underlying issues have been addressed with temporary band-aid solutions. If injuries are a testament to a team’s depth, well, we’re going to get a good look at that now. Not just with the absence of Zibanejad, but as the season progresses, more injuries are likely to occur, legs won’t be as fresh, and divisional teams will be clawing for any type of points. I fear the Rangers are walking on a thin line, possibly masked by the two win streaks. The hockey played from now until the trade deadline will be very, very interesting.[/text_output][image type=”rounded” float=”none” src=”1128″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]What is a bold prediction of yours for the remainder of the season?[/custom_headline][text_output]Greg – Pavel Buchnevich will exceed 60 points this season. And if that’s not bold enough for you, Ondrej Pavelec will play in 20 more games this year and not be a liability in the games he does play in.[/text_output][text_output]Drew – Ondrej Pavelec will play well enough to make most fans disappointed when he moves on to a new team for a bigger paycheck in the offseason. This isn’t just some gut feeling of mine; Pavelec has been better throughout most of his career, including this season, then most give him credit for (note, he was truly abysmal last year). When you look at his adjusted save percentage (dSv%), which is the difference between a goalie’s expected save percentage and their actual save percentage, he has been better than most realize (for more information on dSv% and why it matters, check out my Beginner’s Guide to Goaltender Advanced Stats). Pavs currently has a save percentage of 91.03%, which isn’t fantastic, but when you consider his expected save percentage is 90.9% thanks to the Rangers poor defense, that leaves him with a dSv% of 0.13. The translation to this is, Pavelec has performed better than a league-average netminder would have, given the quality of scoring chances he has faced, and that is perfectly acceptable for a backup.[/text_output][text_output]Rex – Super bold prediction: Nick Holden stays fine and on the team until the end of the season. The Rangers use his new found upswing to flip him for a draft pick or a lower level prospect to a team who lacks defense.[/text_output][text_output]James – You want bold? You want the bold flavor of a James Clark hot take? We trade Rick Nash to the Maple Leafs at the deadline for a 2nd round pick and Connor Carrick.[/text_output][text_output]Keetner – I don’t think the Rangers make the playoffs.

Okay, I don’t know if I believe that yet, but it was honestly the first thing that came to mind. I feel like there are two different scenarios that could play out; (i) the Rangers aren’t as good as their win records suggests and fall out of a Playoff position, or (ii), the Rangers are as good as their win record suggests, but miss the Playoffs because of something absolutely obscure. With how close the Metro is, will it come down to points? No. The tiebreaker of total ROW? Nah. Or how about an insane three-way tie breaker, that eventually boils down to goal differentials? Sounds about right.

I hope that won’t be the case, but the intensity of this divisional race cannot be denied either.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”1129″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””]