First, Alain Vigneault was politely asked to pack his shit hours after the final whistle blew on the season in Philadelphia. Now, it seems like the Rangers are poised to add a big name, veteran winger to their arsenal heading into 2018-19.[/text_output]
Per source Ilya Kovalchuk is set to sign at 2-3 year deal with #NYR
— Igor Eronko (@IgorEronko) April 9, 2018
We have also heard from some of our own sources (holy shit, when did we get sources???) that Kovalchuk’s signing is more of a formality than it is a question.
The most important part of McKenzie’s comments on radio today – to me, at least – is his belief that the Rangers will keep the commitment to two years. A separate Russian report indicates Kovalchuk is set to earn a little over $6 million annually under the soon-to-be-official contract.
So, for summary sake – Ilya Kovalchuk is coming to the New York Rangers on a two-year, $12 million contract with the possibility that it reaches a third year before the dust settles.
To quote my very close friend Ted, who loves to quote Austin Powers: but what does it all mean, Basil?
I’m glad you asked.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=”” src=”2447″][text_output]Let’s break this down bit by bit, because there are a lot of variables here.
“Wait, aren’t we rebuilding? Why are we signing a 35-year-old winger who hasn’t played in the United States in a half decade?”
This seems to be the most common question floating around on Twitter and Reddit, and it might be the most important one to answer first.
There seems to be some confusion over the definition of “rebuilding”, which has created confusion throughout the fan base. Rebuild is a funny word. When fans see it, they assume it means their team is in for a long, challenging road towards getting younger. That road often involves multiple years of bad teams, accumulating high draft picks and creating a new core through the NHL Draft.
While that’s absolutely a strategy a team could use, that isn’t the only strategy available to a team. What a rebuild is designed to do is completely remake or remodel a team’s core. By doing so, yes, you’re usually getting younger and adding new pieces. But there’s also no rule that says a rebuild must take multiple years. A rebuild is meant to take as long as management deems it fit, and the Rangers have never come across as a team ready to invest multiple years into this rebuild.
A large portion of this rebuild was accomplished with the trades made leading up to and during the trade deadline. The Rangers added a slew of top prospects, multiple first round draft picks and four additional picks in rounds two and three. Those trades have given the Rangers a wealth of assets to make a move on core pieces they have their eyes on, either via the draft or in another trade. That trade could be for a top five selection in this year’s draft if the Rangers aren’t able to nab one in the lottery, or for a young player currently occupying a roster spot on a different team (buckle up, you’re going to hear the name Dougie Hamilton a lot this off-season).
Add in this other top prospect or young NHL-ready player with the likes of Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson, Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Buchnevich, Chris Kreider, Kevin Shattenkirk and Brady Skjei, and you can see the “new” Rangers core already taking shape.
What the Rangers now need to do is build up a base to surround their foundation.
That’s where Ilya Kovalchuk comes in. Kovalchuk has long been an elite scorer in every league he’s played in, and has averaged more than a point per game in the KHL regular season since he started his sabbatical. While the talent level is on the exact same level as the NHL, it is the unquestioned #2 league globally, and has a long track record of producing quality NHL players.
Kovalchuk also immediately gives the Rangers something they’ve lacked for years – an through and through scoring threat.
Kovy has scored 63 goals combined over the last two seasons in Russia in 113 games. While his physical game and speed isn’t the same as it was when he was in his prime in the NHL, his shot on the wing hasn’t changed one bit. He still fires off missiles at whim, and if you put that shot with playmakers on the power play and at even strength, you’re going to create more goal scoring opportunities than the Rangers presently can.
If the new Rangers coach is smart, he’d stick Kovalchuk with Pavel Buchnevich at all times and he’d let the creative Russian players perform magic on a daily basis. You wouldn’t be asking for too much for Kovalchuk to post a 30-goal season if getting top six minutes for the Rangers. I think that’s a perfectly fair expectation.
I’ve often compared this Rangers rebuild to what the Yankees accomplished just two years ago, when they shipped off the likes of Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller for top prospects to revamp an already solid farm system. All of that is still true, but (and this will shock you, I’m sure) I see this Kovalchuk signing as something more similar to what the Mets did in the winter leading up to the 2014 season.
Heading into the 2014 season, the Mets signed outfield Curtis Granderson to a four-year deal. At the time, the team knew 2014 wasn’t going to be the year they were expected to make the playoffs, but they saw Granderson as a guy who could serve an important role in 2015 and beyond, when the team was ready to transition into full-fledged contender.
That’s Ilya Kovalchuk. The Rangers still may not be a playoff contender in 2018-19, but it is clear that the goal is to be a cup contender no later than 2019-20, and Kovalchuk can serve an important role on that team. Sign him now to make sure you have him for later. It’s more valuable than hoping a similar player will be available at the same value at a later date.
“Yeah, but isn’t he going to take away time from a young player who could be helping this team long-term?”
Not at all.
If there’s any player on the current Rangers roster most impacted by the addition of Ilya Kovalchuk in terms of a roster spot, it’s not a young player, but a different veteran.
I’m not the only person who feels the Kovalchuk signing signals the end of the Mats Zuccarello era in New York. There was always a chance, with or without a Kovy signing, that Jeff Gorton would look to flip Zuccarello either for more young assets or as a main piece for a top-end NHL defenseman. Now, Gorton has created himself a bit of a safety net to more aggressively shop Zucc.
Zuccarello, with one year left on his deal at a $4.5M cap hit, will have immense value on the trade market. Dallas was rumored to have an interest in his services at the trade deadline, and one would assume they will look to shake up their roster after crashing out of playoff contention. Edmonton will be in the market to give Connor McDavid some sort of partner on the wing, and a shiny Oscar Klefbom could be the piece the Rangers target aggressively by offering Zuccarello as part of a larger package. Again, Dougie Hamilton will fit into these discussions as well, along with numerous others (haven’t forgotten about you, Erik Karlsson).
The Rangers were clearly uncomfortable with extending Ryan McDonagh, regardless of what his price was going to be. But the need remains for a top pairing defenseman, and the price for one in a trade will not be cheap. In order to make a deal happen, you have to trade talented players on your roster along with prospects and picks. Mats Zuccarello (or Kreider, or Hayes) fits that definition, and when you add Ilya Kovalchuk to your roster, it becomes more digestible to trade one of those guys while still maintaining a competitive offense.
“That’s all fine and good, but $6M AAV? What gives?”
Hey, that’s the price for talented scoring wingers in this day and age.
But more importantly, I hear what you’re saying when it comes to the cap situation, so let’s explore that.
Let’s take a peak at the breakdown provided by our good friend HockeyStatMiner on Twitter. With Kovalchuk’s assumed $6.3M annual cap hit, the Rangers will have $21 million left in projected space. That figure does not include extensions for pending Restricted Free Agents Brady Skjei, Kevin Hayes, Ryan Spooner, Vladdy Namestnikov, Jimmy Vesey and John Gilmour.
As we’ve stated multiple times on the podcast, the only RFA really guaranteed to get some form of extension is Brady Skjei. Kevin Hayes is the next likeliest, but it’s still incredibly possible two of the quartet of Hayes, Namestnikov, Spooner and Vesey gets traded. It’s also been suggested by Larry Brooks that the Rangers could simply let Spooner play out the next season on a one-year tender to better gauge his true value to the team and take their chances with him once he hits free agency. Either way, there’s a next to zero chance the Rangers will simply stand pat and extend all of their RFAs.
Also, we’ve already talked about a possible Mats Zuccarello trade, which would send at least another $4.5 million heading in one direction (though some number likely greater than Zucc’s is probably coming back this direction).
All that is said with this truth still being in place – even with a $6 million hit coming with Ilya Kovalchuk, the Rangers have more than enough flexibility to accomplish whatever it is they want to accomplish on top of the inevitable John Tavares contract.
“Alright, that’s all fine and good, I guess. But there has to be a downside here, right?”
Honestly, there isn’t, especially if it’s just a two-year deal.
If Kovalchuk’s game unexpectedly craters once he comes back over here, you’re not harming your roster long-term by having his cap hit on the books for just two years.
If Kovalchuk’s game remains at a high level, but the Rangers as a team continues to struggle, he becomes one of the more intriguing trade pieces a contender can inquire about ahead of the trade deadline.
If Kovalchuk’s game remains at a high level and the Rangers play playoff-caliber hockey, isn’t that what you wanted?[/text_output]
Author: Greg Kaplan
Greg Kaplan is a man of mystery. Did he write this? No. Was he asked to write this? Yes. But did he write this article? Maybe, do you like it?