Ryan McDonagh Has Been Traded And Wait J.T. Miller Has Been Traded Too??

[text_output]Ho. Ly. Shit.

What the fuck just happened? I’m not sure I can process everything that just happened.

Remember that time I said today was going to be a stinker for the Rangers? How fun was that? That aged well.[/text_output]

[text_output]Moron.

Anyway, there’s a lot to digest here, so let’s slide on some sweatpants and get down to business.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=”” src=”2280″][text_output]There are many ways to evaluate this trade, and many ways we can dovetail this deal out into more sophisticated pieces. I’m going to go as big-picture as possible here, so hang in there.

In terms of did the Rangers get enough from the Lightning to warrant this massive a move, my answer is: maybe?

I think we’ve all fallen victim (myself very much included) to overrating J.T. Miller’s trade market. Everyone saw what the St. Louis Blues were able to get for an expiring Paul Stastny deal, and we started salivating. While Stastny and Miller are having nearly identical seasons points-wise, Stastny is far and away the more complete player who can offer more upside to the Winnipeg Jets line-up.

Also, while we’re overrating Miller, we could easily be underrating Vladislav Namestnikov.

Yeah, it’s easy to see Vladdy’s offensive breakout this year as the cost-benefit of playing with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov all year. I could skate next to those two and probably put up 10 points by accident.

However, even before Namestnikov saw this offensive outburst, he’s always graded out as a better Corsi grade than Miller. Like Miller, Namestnikov has been sheltered on zone starts (60% offensive zone starts for Vladdy, 55% for Miller). Unlike Miller, Vladdy has enjoyed a CF% rating over 50 each of the last three years. Again, some of that can be a credit to the teammates he finds himself playing with, but Miller has also had the benefit of occasionally playing with talented wingers and centers of his own.

Say we break this down into two separate deals. If the Rangers only acquired Namestnikov and a conditional 2019 first round pick for J.T. Miller, would you still be disappointed? Probably, but maybe not as much as you felt yesterday when the deal was announced.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”2282″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Now, the McDonagh portion.

Let’s talk first about the players coming back here: forward Brett Howden and defenseman Libor Hajek.

Smarter people than I have chimed in on both, and the pair seem to be NHL pieces moving forward that can be solid if not spectacular. Howden profiles as a middle six center, playing strong two-way hockey and providing some scoring upside (as much as I hate comparisons, think Derek Stepan lite).

Hajek, meanwhile, was one of the stars for the Czech Republic in the last World Juniors, which may have helped raise his stock slightly. Nonetheless, most say Hajek has the profile to slot in as a team’s fourth or fifth defenseman, serving an important but not starring role on a team’s blue line.

If you’re upset the Rangers didn’t snag the Lightning’s best prospect, defenseman Cal Foote, I can understand that. However, almost every Lightning prospect list included both Howden and Hajek in the team’s top five, so it’s possible the Rangers decided to two get decently rated prospects instead of one highly rated prospect.

The belief heading into the trade deadline was that the Rangers would be able to ask for a young, NHL-ready player, a top prospect and a first rounder for McDonagh. If you want to slice this deal up, you could say the Rangers accomplished that by getting Namestnikov, Hajek and a ’18 first for McDonagh, then flipped Miller for Howden and a conditional ’19 first. Maybe the Miller return is light, maybe the total return for the two is a little light, but I don’t think you can be disappointed in this haul all things considered (and yeah, that’s directed at myself for at first being disappointed in the haul when we recorded the podcast).

The bigger conversation we need to have here, which is one we’re going to have over and over again over the next four months; what the hell is next?[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”1353″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Now more than ever, Alain Vigneault needs to be fired.

If it was me, I would’ve fired him right at 3 p.m. (I would’ve fired him two years ago, but you know how I feel about that already). He doesn’t serve any purpose finishing this season out just to be fired in June. What’s the point?

And if you’re nervous about Lindy Ruff as interim, fine. Fire him, too. Let Scott Arniel finish the season behind the bench and start compiling your list of replacements for the beginning of next year right now. Why wait? Who benefits?

Second, the Rangers still have a massive restricted free agency decision to make.

The Rangers made their decision on Miller, one they would’ve had to make come arbitration day anyway and one we’ve discussed at length in previous pieces.

Now, though, the Rangers still need to decide between Namestnikov, Ryan Spooner and Rick Nash.

The team absolutely has the cap space to keep all three, but I’m not sure it’s a benefit to sign each to long-term deals. In my mind, one of the three needs to be moved, with Ryan Spooner being the likeliest candidate (even though he would bring back to lowest return). Spooner, as previously mentioned, is extremely similar to Miller, and could have a meaningful long-term role on this team if the Rangers wanted to go that route. To me, however, locking up all three presents a few more roadblocks in front of the likes of Filip Chytil and Lias Andersson than I’m comfortable with. Now, it’s totally possible both need another year in the AHL before getting a full-time call to the big club, but why sign three guys who would prevent them from having somewhat clear paths to big line-up minutes?

In fact, let’s talk about some important free agent and trade decisions this team still needs to make.

Depending on what you think of the words used by Mats Zuccarello, who told his hometown newspaper that Jeff Gorton said he has a meaningful role to play on the Rangers beyond the deadline, there’s a good chance he’s the next Rangers captain. If he’s named captain, this team cannot possibly trade him this summer. You don’t need that grenade to go off in a young lockerroom.

If Mats Zuccarello does, indeed, stick around, I don’t see the Rangers bringing back Rick Nash. That veteran voice is important, but when you also take into consideration the team likely adding Ilya Kovalchuk (get used to it, folks), there aren’t enough wing spots available to hand out an extra veteran signing for the years and financial commitment it’ll take to bring back Nash.

The forward lines next year, though, could be tasty. Say Spooner/Jimmy Vesey are sent out, Zuccarello stays and the Rangers do, indeed, sign Kovalchuk, take a gander:

Kreider-Zibanejad-Chytil

Kovalchuk-Namestnikov-Buchnevich

Andersson-Hayes-Zuccarello

Lettieri-Nieves-Fast

If that doesn’t get you even the slightest bit excited, call a coroner. You’re dead. You don’t have a pulse. You had a good run. It was fun while it lasted. You did good, kid.

Now defensively, hoo boy. In my mind, the Rangers don’t benefit by signing a high-priced free agent or making a super splashy trade that involves all the assets the team just stockpiled. At least not yet.

Of course, there’s a very shiny, highly skilled Swedish answer to all that ails the Rangers defense. Unfortunately, the odds of the Rangers losing enough games to get the best odds at the #1 overall pick remain nearly impossible, and it’s extremely difficult to think of any team trading out of the #1 spot for any combination of picks/players this side of Peter Chiarelli. Depending on where the Rangers pick, though, Adam Boqvist could be on the board. I’m not here to tell you he’s Dahlin by a different name, but he’s a game-changing defensive prospect.

All this is said, of course, that the Rangers should simply take the best player on the board. If it’s Boqvist, phenomenal. If it’s not, get who is. I don’t care about position.

For the sake of this exercise, say the Rangers first round pick isn’t either Dahlin or Boqvist. I don’t see the need for the Rangers to add a single NHL talent to their current group of defenseman.

I’m not saying the group the team has is good enough to make the playoffs as is. They’re not. But, they’re all young enough where the Rangers need to truly evaluate what they have in house. Next season needs to be a year where the Rangers take a hard look at the young, NHL-ready pieces and decide which are here to help the next Stanley Cup contender and where the Rangers need to spend to make sure they can compete.

Skjei-Shattenkirk

Pionk-Gilmour

DeAngelo-Smith

That can get ugly at times, and if Henrik Lundqvist was looking for a break from high-danger shots with Alain Vigneault out the door, I don’t think it’s coming. But it’s incredibly important to get a full season look at Pionk, Gilmour and DeAngelo to figure out what they can offer long-term, and it’s equally important to give Brady Skjei as much top pairing time as possible to determine if that’s somewhere he can survive. These are going to be the most important answers the Rangers get next year.

Can the Rangers be a playoff team next year with that roster construction? Absolutely. Just look at the Wild Card teams this year and you can see that there’s plenty of room for a young team to make their mark.

Should you expect the Rangers to be a playoff team next year? No way. It’ll all depend on how much improvement they get from their young guns. If everything goes perfectly on defense and every player plays to the 100th percentile outcome, yeah, next year could be special and fun.

Never expect that. Expect to have answers about the long-term role Gilmour, Pionk and DeAngelo can play. Expect to have answers about Skjei being a top pairing defender. Expect to see a lot of at least one of Chytil or Andersson. Expect to see long-term deals for two of Kevin Hayes, Vladislav Namestnikov and Ryan Spooner. Expect to see a completely new coaching staff.

These are our new expectations. Rebuilds can be difficult and it’s going to challenge all of us, but god damn is it exciting.

Buckle up.[/text_output]