With that said, let’s jump into my first ever mailbag article. You all did not disappoint, and I got a number of fantastic questions to dive into in this piece. I’m not sure how often I will be doing these types of articles going forward, but please always feel free to reach out to me on Twitter, or consider becoming a Blueshirts Breakaway Patreon subscriber, which gives you access to the discord channel (among many other perks), where you can fire away with anything you have for me (and see what happens when I’m grumpy and haven’t had caffeine yet and decide to go on a rant about God knows what). Thanks again for the support and the questions, and hopefully my answers don’t disappoint.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2513″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Off-Season Maneuvers [/custom_headline][text_output]Unsurprisingly, I got a number of questions asking for my thoughts on what the Rangers can, will, or should do this offseason. The Rangers currently find themselves in a great spot with regards to the potentials moves they can make, both via the draft and trade, thanks to the collection of assets Jeff Gorton was able to accumulate last year.
First, @MacWinnon on Twitter sent the following two questions, which are interconnected so I’ll answer them both together:[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2517″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2518″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Both good questions, and I’ll start with a sentiment expressed in the second tweet. To this point, Jeff Gorton has stuck to his word, so I personally take it seriously that he told Craig Custance of The Athletic that the Rangers are indeed open to trading one of their first round picks, and went on to note that “you need different age groups to build your team.” Now, it’s one thing to say this, it is a complete different thing to be able to execute this. The NHL has a number of extremely conservative GMs that very rarely trade, so you can’t simply snap your fingers and make a deal simply because you think it’s best to make a deal.
With that caveat out of the way, I think the Rangers will look to trade at least one of their first-round picks in a deal to acquire an NHL player. Gorton himself said you can’t have all 18-year-olds, so you have to take him at his word that he will at least try to turn one (or multiple) of the seven top-90 picks the Rangers own into a roster player. Who the Rangers can target is a topic that I could write an entire article on; hell I could write a series of articles on this topic. For the sake of brevity, I will start by saying I recommend you all check out these fantastic recent articles by Shayna Goldman and Brandon Fitzpatrick, which examined what the Rangers can potentially acquire with a late first-round pick and who the Rangers can theoretically trade for this summer, respectively. If you’d like a deeper dive into the options available, I’d suggest checking out what Shayna and Brandon both wrote.
As for my take, the name I keep coming back to is Oscar Klefbom, the 24-year-old left-handed defenseman on the Edmonton Oilers. Don’t get me wrong, Dougie Hamilton is a better player, and he would’ve been on my non-existent Norris ballot this year. However, I agree with Kent Wilson, who covers the Flames for The Athletic (and is one of my favorite hockey writers), in that it is very unlikely Dougie Hamilton is moved unless a significant, significant return is coming back. In fact, Kent told me that, “NYR would have to offer, say, Buchnevich and a high pick to start.” I just think, realistically speaking, Hamilton will be too expensive for the Rangers to realistically acquire, so my sights are set on Oscar Klefbom.
Klefbom made his NHL debut as a 20-year-old during the 2013-2014 season with the Oilers and impressed enough during his first few seasons to ink a long-term extension with the team in September on 2015 that would pay him just over $29 million over 7 seasons, equating to an AAV of $4.167 million through the 2022-2023 season, the last two years containing a modified NTC according to CapFriendly.
While some saw this as a bit of a risky deal at the time, it paid immediate dividends, as Klefbom had a breakout year in the 2016-2017, during which he established himself as a clear-cut top-pairing defenseman. Klefbom led the Oilers defenseman in a number of key statistical categories that year, including having sizable advantages in 5v5 and all situations Game Score and defensive WAR. In fact, among all defensemen in the NHL during the 2016-2017 season, Klefbom finished the year ranked 20th in all situations Game Score, 22nd in 5v5 Game Score and 21st in defensive WAR, an impressive feat for any young defenseman. If you are unfamiliar with either of these metrics and would like to learn more, I encourage you to check out either my Hockey Lexicon, which provides explanations of all major advanced stats and concepts, or recent dedicated pieces I wrote on Game Score and WAR.
I’m not here to tell you that Game Score and WAR are the only measures you should look at to evaluate defenseman; there are a number of additional important metrics and traditional scouting/the eye test is vital to player analysis as well. However, I assure you that the tape and many of the other metrics will tell you the same things that his Game Score and defensive WAR metrics state: Oscar Klefbom was undoubtedly a top-pairing quality defenseman in the NHL during the 2016-2017 season. On top of that, he also recorded 12 goals and 26 assists, good for 38 points and 27 primary points, both of which led Oilers defensemen. If you want a more complete look at Klefbom’s numbers, I’d highly recommend checking out Bill Comeau’s excellent SKATR data visualization tool. To save you the trouble, below is a screenshot that compares Oscar Klefbom (left) to Ryan McDonagh (right) over the prior two seasons. All data is 5v5, score adjusted and per-60, and all numbers in the charts represent percentiles among defensemen. As you can see, Klefbom stacks up pretty nicely to McDonagh, who I’m sure most reading this will agree is a top-paring defenseman.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2520″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Klefbom was not the same player in 2017-2018, and ended up requiring season-ending shoulder surgery in March. It was reported that Klefbom apparently was playing with the injured shoulder for much of the year. Elliotte Friedman speculated just before that Klefbom was clearly playing hurt, and that it was the belief of some that the Oilers weren’t shutting him down, despite being far out of the playoff race, because they were showcasing him for a trade. This, my friends, along with various other reports out of Edmonton throughout the year, is a significant reason why Klefbom is a name that is so often being thrown around the rumor mill as a trade chip.
In my opinion, despite some potential health concerns, Oscar Klefbom represents excellent value as a soon-to-be 25 year old defenseman that has shown the ability to be an impact player in the NHL who is locked up through the bulk of him prime to a very reasonable $4.167 million cap hit through the 2022-2023 season, at the conclusion of which he will still only be 29. For this reason, combined with the fact that one of the industry’s top insiders has reported he could be on the trade block, combined with the fact that Peter Chiarelli could very likely be on his last leg, and therefor desperate (and let’s be real, he made a number of awful trades even when he wasn’t desperate), are the reasons why if I was Rangers GM Jeff Gorton, I’d be calling Chiarelli every single day to see what it would cost to pry him out of Edmonton. Given his down year and his recent shoulder surgery, odds are you can probably get him at a relatively cheap cost as well.
As to what the cost for Klefbom might be, that’s another topic for another day. Mats Zuccarello is a good fit for Edmonton (and Jonathan Willis, who covers the team for The Athletic, told me this himself when discussing possibly dealing for the 10th pick). However, Klefbom will cost more than just Mats Zuccarello, who only has one year left on his deal. However, we are talking about the GM that traded Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson straight up, so who the hell knows for sure. I would guess though that Chiarelli is likely looking for win-now pieces, so I’m not sure how interested he’d be in picks, unless of course he then can take a pick and move it for another win-now piece. Point is, Chiarelli is such a wild card that it’s not worth getting into speculating the cost of Klefbom, but to answer the question asked, Oscar Klefbom is the guy I’d personally be targeting, and I’d personally be fine trading Zuccarello and one of the late first round picks to acquire him.
I know, a bunch of paragraphs ago I indicated that I was trying to keep this brief. I swear I meant to keep this as short as possible, but anyone who has been reading me for a while now knows that I always error on the side of providing too much evidence to back my points, as opposed to not enough. So quickly, to answer the final part of the question about strategies for the various picks if the Rangers do not grab a defenseman: you’ll have to wait on that. Later this month, myself along with Shawn Taggart and George Obremski will be publishing an update to our draft prospect ranks, which will also group the prospects into tiers, and then we will also be doing an additional draft piece closer to the draft. You can all check out those pieces in the upcoming weeks for my thoughts on draft pick strategy.[/text_output][line id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]Lou Giordano was also interested in the Rangers acquiring a stud young defenseman, and he asked the following:[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2523″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Short answer: way more than most Ranger fans likely would be willing to give up.
Long answer: Approximately one shit-ton of assets, good sir.
Alright fine, I’ll elaborate.
Jacob Trouba is a 24-year-old right-handed defenseman for the Winnipeg Jets, whose previous deal expires at the end of the season. However, Trouba is slated to become a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, so the Jets still have full control over him. Matt Cane has an excellent model for predicting the salaries that impending free agents will likely get, and according to his projections, here is what Trouba’s next contract could look like, depending on the term he is looking for (keep in mind, with RFAs, the cap hit tends to go UP as you tack on term, because you are buying out UFA years):
- One year: $3.97 million
- Two years: $4 million
- Three years: $5.32 million
- Four years: $5.66 million
- Five years-seven years: $5.97 million
These projections were made before the playoffs for what it’s worth. I’m not exactly sure how Matt’s model works, so I’m not sure how large of an effect it would have on his model. But if I’ve learned anything from following sports my whole life, it’s that GMs love them a player that has proven to perform well when the stakes are highest, and Trouba has performed very admirably throughout these playoffs so far.
So, we know Trouba is worthy of a significant pay raise, and in my opinion, he’d be worth every penny (and then some). Let’s take a look at Bill Comeau’s fantastic SKATR tool, and see how Trouba stacks up against some of the league’s best defenseman over the past two seasons. In each of the images below, Trouba is in the left column, and all data is 5v5, score adjusted and per-60, and all numbers in the charts represent percentiles among defensemen.
Since I just gave a fairly in-depth explanation of how valuable I believe Oscar Klefbom to be, let’s start by comparing Trouba with Klefbom.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2524″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]As you can see, Trouba is equivalent, or better than, Klefbom in many of the major categories listed, including two of my favorite statistics: Game Score and relative to teammate expected goals for percentage (Rel Tmate xGF%).
Alex Pietrangelo is a player that is widely regarded as one of the better defenseman in the NHL, and this season he was prominently featured in many Norris trophy discussions, so let’s see how Trouba stacks up to him.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2525″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Well would you look at that, Trouba appears to be on a very similar tier to Alex Pietrangelo across many of the stats tracked in this visual. They have similar Games Scores and standard production numbers, and Trouba tends to have a larger impact on expected goal share, while Pietrangelo has a larger impact on shot share.
Lastly, let’s see how Trouba stacks up against Dougie Hamilton, a guy who earlier I stated would’ve been on my non-existent Norris ballot this year.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2526″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Alright, maybe Trouba isn’t quite the defenseman that Hamilton is. However, Hamilton’s Achilles heel is that he is a remarkably undisciplined player, as represented by being in the eighth percentile in penalty differential, which is a far cry from Trouba, who is in the 70th percentile. Hamilton leads Trouba in most of the other significant stats, but between the lack of discipline and the tougher zonal deployment that Trouba typically faces compared to Hamilton, the gap between the two players is a bit narrower than the rest of the graph might suggest, and it could get even more narrow if Trouba continues to impress in the playoffs.
Suffice it to say, Jacob Trouba is an excellent defenseman, and you could build the argument that he is already a top-25 defenseman in the NHL. That, combined with the fact that he isn’t eligible to be a UFA until 2020, means it would cost A TON to get him in a trade.
It’s difficult to assess exactly how much it would take, because teams so rarely move young talented defenseman that still have multiple years left under team control. I know some like to point at the Dougie Hamilton trade as an example of why it might not cost that much, as it only cost Calgary their first-round pick and two second-round picks to acquire Hamilton. However, that deal was criticized at the time for being too low of a return (which was the correct analysis), and the Bruins had very little leverage since it was known that the team and then RFA Dougie Hamilton were far apart in contract negotiations.
Another young defenseman that was moved in the somewhat recent past, Seth Jones, yielded a return of Ryan Johansen, who at the time was viewed as a no-brainer first line center. Also remember, at the time Seth Jones was traded, he had not yet blossomed into the Seth Jones that he is today; he was a good young player with a ton of promise, but there was still a level of risk involved, as he had not really come close to realizing his full potential yet. Keith Yandle, whom was older, not as highly regarded and had less years of team control, cost the Rangers arguably their best prospect at the time in Anthony Duclair, a first round pick and a second-round pick. Granted, the Coyotes retained half of Yandle’s salary, which upped his value, but they also threw in Chris Summers and a fourth-round pick. There was also the Ryan McDonagh trade, which I’m sure I don’t need to outline for you all.
Given these very loose comparisons, I honestly think you are looking at a return similar to what Kent Wilson is asking for Dougie Hamilton: a very good young player (Pavel Buchnevich or Brady Skjei) and the 9th overall pick in the draft. In the situation the Lou outlined in his question, Winnipeg was dealing Trouba due to cap concerns, so that possibly could bring the price down a little bit. But make no mistake, given the Rangers current roster and collection of assets, there is no realistic scenario where the Rangers are obtaining a player of Trouba’s quality that is under 25 with multiple years left of team control, without giving up a hefty, hefty price.
You can throw all the silly four quarters for a dollar trade scenario you want (things like Namestnikov + late first round picks + B level prospect), but no GM in their right mind is giving up a true impact player for a collection of stuff. I understand that the McDonagh + J.T. Miller trade has Ranger fans thinking that these types of trades are possible. But just do us all a favor and stop; McDonagh is older than Trouba, about to be a UFA in a year and a half and due for a significant pay raise, has a fairly length injury history, and was injured at the time of the trade with a broken hand. Those things all negatively impacted his trade value. Further, Winnipeg is not a rebuilding team like the Rangers; if they are trading Trouba, it’s for pieces that will help them win now, not three (or more) years down the line. If you want an impact player that is still multiple years away from hitting UFA, you need to give back an impact asset, end of discussion.[/text_output][line id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]The Mase of Spades asked the following in the Blueshirts Breakaway Discord Channel, and it’s a type of question I’ve seen bandied about quite a bit on Twitter and Reddit:[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2529″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Quinn Hughes is an excellent defensive prospect who likely will be taken before the Rangers pick at nine. Most draft and prospect analysts have Hughes ranked somewhere between fourth and ninth overall, and I currently have him at fifth, and second among defensemen. He’s a dynamic skater with excellent two-way ability, and likely closer to NHL-ready than Adam Boqvist, whom many have ranked in a similar tier (myself included). All that said, I honestly don’t see a realistic scenario where I’m willing to give up the assets it will require to obtain a high enough pick to draft Quinn Hughes, without giving up the ninth pick, and there are a few reasons for this.
First, it is possible that Hughes will be available at nine. Sure, I have him ranked at five, and many popular draft analysts have him ranked above nine, but he is also ranked at nine or below by many. I know there has been a lot of talk about a consensus top-eight prospects recently, with Hughes being firmly entrenched in that; but this notion is bull shit. There is no consensus top-eight. There are a handful of very smart people that believe it drops off after eight, but there are just as many (if not more) smart people that don’t believe this to be the case. Bob McKenzie for example has Quinn Hughes ranked ninth, and his rankings are based off of surveying a panel of 10 NHL scouts, so these are individuals who likely have a say over what their teams do at the draft, who have collectively ranked Hughes as the ninth best prospect. Again, I personally disagree with this rank, but there is certainly a case to be made that Hughes could be available at nine.
[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” link=”true” target=”blank” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” alt=”Photo Credit: Rena Laverty” href=”https://www.blueshirtsbreakaway.com/” title=”Photo Credit: Rena Laverty” info_content=”Photo Credit: Rena Laverty” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=”” src=”2531″][text_output]Most importantly however, it is extremely expensive to move up within the top-10 of the draft (which I wrote about last week), let alone outright trade for the pick, especially in the salary cap era where there is nothing more valuable than a top-flight talent on their entry level contract. It cost the Rangers Derek Stepan, who has multiple years left on his deal, and Anti Raanta (who by now we can comfortably say is a starting-caliber goalie) for the seventh pick and Tony DeAngelo, who while talented, was a number of tiers down the list of Arizona’s prospect rankings. When you look back at the history of trades involving picks this high, they pick is normally part of a package to acquire a high-caliber player (most recently, Matt Duchene).
So, if the Rangers wanted to trade for the seventh pick outright, without using their own ninth pick, in order to try to get Hughes as well as draft someone else at nine, it would cost them a pretty penny. I don’t think you realistically can get the deal done using Zuccarello, the non-Skjei or Hayes RFAs (Spooner, Namestnikov, Vesey) and later picks. I’d happily trade Zuccarello, Spooner/Namestnikov and say the Boston pick to Detroit (6), Vancouver (7) or Chicago (8) for their pick, but I don’t see why they would do the deal. Detroit and Vancouver are in the process of rebuilding, so it would likely require a big overpay to get their pick outright, and Chicago is still in cap hell, so it would make no sense at all for them to take on salary in exchange for a potentially high-talent, cost-controlled asset. I understand that many believe the Blackhawks are a team that would look to make a “win now” move, but the only way I see them giving up their pick, is if shedding Brent Seabrook’s contract is involved. And for what it’s worth, Seabrook might have the very worst contract in the entire NHL, with an AAV of $6.875 through the 2023-2024 season. In the immortal words of Chance the Rapper, “that’s a nope.”[/text_output][line id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]Kevin Mead (no relation to Blueshirts Breakaway podcast host Ryan Mead, at least, none that I’m aware of) proposed a very interesting question pertaining to the looming 2020 NHL lockout:[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2532″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]I will start by stating that I do not have any sources within the Rangers organization (well, none that would tell me about future plans at least), so it’s impossible for me to say what the Rangers are actually thinking. That said, I’m happy to share my own personal thoughts on the matter, and how I think this could apply to the summer plans.
For those that are unaware, the current NHL collective bargaining agreement (CBA) is set to expire after the 2021-2022 season; however, the NHL (owners) can choose to opt out of the CBA on September 1, 2019 and the NHL players association (NHLPA) can choose to opt out on September 19, 2019. If either side chooses to opt-out of the deal, that would cause the CBA to expire following the 2019-20 season. At this point, it seems very likely that the NHLPA will opt out of the current CBA, as evidenced by the fact that multiple of the larger contracts/extensions signed this past summer had lockout protection; structuring the contracts so that much of their 2020-21 salary is in the form of a signing bonus to be paid out on July 1, instead of base salary. On top of the evidence in the recent contracts, there are a cavalcade of issues that the players and owners are likely willing to go to war over, such as escrow, the Olympics, revenue sharing, the salary cap etc.
The buyouts Kevin referenced in his question are compliance (amnesty) buyouts; after the 2012-2013 lockout, teams received two compliance buyouts each, which enabled them to buy-out a player’s contract by paying him two-thirds of the remaining value of a contract over twice the remaining length of the contract. What makes these compliance buyouts different from a traditional player contract buyout, is that the compliance buyouts did not count against a team’s salary cap, whereas traditional buyouts do. The reason teams were given these compliance buyouts is because the salary cap was rolled back, so teams were granted these buyouts to help them become cap complaint by the hard cap of $64.3 million in year two of the new CBA (down from a $70.2 million).
The reason I spent the time to note this here, is that the compliance buyouts were not handed to teams for shits and giggles. They were provided to help teams become cap compliance due to the salary cap roll back. So, one can assume that the only reason that compliance buyouts would be provided in the event of another lockout, is if the salary cap is again rolled back. Multiple NHL owners have made it a thing to bitch and moan about the rising cap, so I’m sure this will be an issue in the next CBA negotiations. However, this is another assumption (albeit probably a smart assumption) on top of the original assumption that there will be a lockout (again, probably a smart assumption). While both of these assumptions are likely smart ones, they still are two assumptions, and it could potentially be very dangerous to make moves based on assumptions of future events, no matter how well-informed the assumptions may be.
So, with all that said, I think it would be a mistake to allow a potential (likely) 2020 NHL lockout to influence the current decision making. I do think that it’s possible that the potentially impending lockout could cause some teams to be a bit riskier, but I personally think that would be a mistake. From the Rangers perspective, especially given the current rebuilding situation, I’d much rather lose out on a second-tier free agent like James Van Riemsdyk or John Carlson because another team over-paid in term, hoping for potential future compliance buyouts, than have the Rangers overpay the player in term and find myself in a weird spot of rooting for a lockout in the hopes that we get compliance buyouts to get us out from under the onerous contract.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Prospects[/custom_headline][text_output]While analytics is still the area I consider myself most adept at, I have done a ton of research on prospects over the past couple of years, including draft prospects and those currently in the Rangers farm system. I wouldn’t put myself on the level of some of the other guys that do a fantastic job of analyzing prospects in the Rangers blogosphere (shout out to Josh Khalfin, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone as knowledgeable as he is that is also as approachable), but I would say I’m smarter than the average bear here, and I very much enjoy prospect analysis and questions. With that said, I got two great questions from this mailbag regarding prospects.
First up is a question from HockeyStatMiner. Before I get to my answer here, I want to just add that HSM is a must-follow for all Rangers fans on Twitter. He’s my go-to for anything related to the CBA or the salary cap, and he’s also just a genuinely great guy.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2533″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]First things first, in order to answer the question of how close the top-10 NHL draft prospects are to NHL-ready, I should probably say who my top-10 prospects are. Later this month, we will publish the next iteration of the Blueshirts Breakaway prospect ranks (initial ranks here), but I’ll give you a bit of a sneak-peak as to my analysis here. I’m personally a very big fan of ranking prospects in terms of tiers, as I believe it provides a lot of valuable context to a standard numbered rankings list. Here is how I tier-off the top-10 (well, top-11 in my case):
- Tier 1 – Rasmus Dahlin
- Tier 2 – Andrei Svechnikov (as much as I love Zadina, and as often as people group Svechnikov and Zadina together, I think Svechnikov is a clear tier ahead, and closer to Dahlin than he is Zadina)
- Tier 3 – Filip Zadina
- Tier 4 – Oliver Wahlstrom, Quinn Hughes and Adam Boqvist
- Tier 5 – Evan Bouchard, Brady Tkachuk, Noah Dobson, Ty Smith and Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Now, to answer the question, I believe Rasmus Dahlin and Andrei Svechnikov both have the strength and ability to play in the NHL next year, and I would bet that both players break training camp on the active NHL roster for the teams that draft them. I purposefully use strength instead of size here, because the league is finally trending away from overrating size; however, we are still largely discussing 17 and 18-year-old kids here, and one of the biggest impediments to cracking an NHL roster for many highly-touted prospects, is being physically mature enough to truly compete with the grown men they will face on a nightly basis in the NHL. Dahlin and Svechnikov should, for my money at least, both be able to compete in the NHL at the beginning of next season.
With Filip Zadina, I believe it will somewhat be dependent on what team drafts him, and how much his develops his strength and conditioning in the offseason. I think he possesses the talent to play in the NHL on day one of next year; he is perhaps the best stick handler in this draft class, has an elite shot, and is defensively responsible. However, despite being listed at 6’ 1’’ and 192 lbs, his strength is a current weakness in my opinion, and he is pushed off the puck a bit too easily at times for a player of his size. If I’m a team drafting him, I’d give him every chance to win an opening day roster spot, and if I had to bet on it, I’d bet he makes it, but I don’t think he’s as much of a guarantee in the way Dahlin and Svechnikov are.
As for the rest, I think Brady Tkachuk and Evan Bouchard are the most NHL-ready of the group, largely due to their combination of size and hockey IQ. Both players have NHL size, are positionally sound, have high hockey IQs and feature game styles that should transition relatively easily to the NHL. However, Mike McMahon of the College Hockey News recently reported that, “as of now,” Tkachuk is planning on going back to Boston University for another year. He did add the caveat that being drafted may change this, but he had reason enough to believe that the plan for Tkachuk currently is to return to college for another year. I think both Tkachuk and Bouchard have the ability to crack the NHL rosters next season, possibly out of training camp, but this largely depends on who drafts them, and how well they perform in training camp and the pre-season (and, for Tkachuk, whether he decides to return to college).
Oliver Wahlstrom also already has NHL size and skill at this very moment, but he’s a bit more of a question mark, and if I had to guess, I’d say he makes his NHL debut towards the end of this coming season, or at the onset of the 2019-2020 season. However, he has a bit more development to due in his own end of the ice, which often is an impediment to NHL playing time for young forwards. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not bad in his own zone, and I think he possess the ability to become a plus-defender in the NHL. That said, he’s not quite as defensively responsible as Tkachuk at this point (who, for what it’s worth, is about nine months older than Wahlstrom, which greatly helps his ability to be more NHL ready), and he could use some further development in that area of his game. Lastly, Wahlstrom is currently committed to play for Harvard University for the 2018-2019 season; of course, he can always change his mind, but that is an awfully alluring option that he has at his disposal, and most reports seem to indicate he plans to head to Harvard this summer.
[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” link=”true” target=”blank” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” src=”2535″ alt=”Photo Credit: Rena Laverty” href=”https://www.blueshirtsbreakaway.com/” title=”Photo Credit: Rena Laverty” info_content=”Photo Credit: Rena Laverty” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]I think Noah Dobson, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Quinn Hughes are all about a year or two away from cracking an NHL roster. Hughes will likely return to Michigan for another year, but has the ability to compete for an NHL roster spot right now on some teams. However, he is on the smaller side of the spectrum for defenseman at 5’ 10’’, 175 pounds (that weight listing I think it a bit generous if you ask me), and history suggests he won’t be making an immediate jump into the NHL. Noah Dobson and Jesperi Kotkaniemi both have more typical NHL height, at 6’ 3’’ and 6’ 2’’, respectively, but both could afford to put on a few pounds of muscle (Dobson is only listed at 180 lbs, while Kotkaniemi is 190), and both have skill sets that could afford a bit more seasoning. All in all, I think all three of these players are likely to make their NHL debuts during the 2019-2020 season, but of course this also largely depends on the situations and rosters of the teams that draft them.That leaves Ty Smith and Adam Boqvist, both of which I’d peg as most likely appearing in the NHL in the 2020-2021 season (assuming there isn’t a lockout). Both players have incredible offensive ability that could make an impact in the NHL immediately, but their defensive games still need work, and both need to get stronger. If I were placing bets, I would say that Ty Smith plays two more years in Juniors (Ty Smith turns 20 on March 24, 2020, meaning he would not be eligible to play in the AHL until the 2020-2021 season) and then possibly some time in the AHL before making the leap to the NHL. As for Adam Boqvist, my guess is he plays another year in the SHL, and then one in the AHL (the 20-year-old eligibility portion of requirements to play in the AHL do not apply to European players), before realistically making the jump into the NHL.[/text_output][line id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]B_Pecora also had a very important question about Rangers excellent goalie prospect Igor Shestyorkin.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2536″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]The answer to this is actually fairly straight-forward, so this should be my shortest answer yet (emphasis on should). Igor Shestyorkin is currently 22 years old, was a four-round draft pick in 2014, and is the current heir apparent to Henrik Lundqvist. Despite his KHL team (SKA) inexplicably playing the more verteran Mikko Koskinen over him at times, Shestyorkin has dominated the KHL in the opportunities he has been given, and he is currently shining for team Russia at the IIHF World Championships, coming off of two consecutive shutouts and seven straight scoreless periods.
Shestyorkin is currently under contract with SKA through the 2018-2019 season, and he has made comments in the past indicating that he very much plans to come over to the NHL, so once can reasonably assume that the Rangers will try to bring him over for the 2019-2020 season. At the start of the 2019-20 season, Shestyorkin will be 23 (will turn 24 that December), and Henrik Lundqvist will be 37 years old, and entering the second to last season of his contract with the Rangers. Assuming nothing goes wrong with his development between now and then, and Henrik Lundqvist continues to be an starting caliber goalie in the NHL (which, for the record, I think he will be; check out what goalie expert Catherine Silverman said on the Blueshirts Breakaway podcast a few months back as to why I feel this way), I believe Shestyorkin will be tasked to be Lundqvist’s backup in year one of his NHL tenure. As far as the following season, my guess is Lundqvist is still the starter, but he’ll get far more rest (he will be 38 after all) as the Rangers ratchet up Shestyorkin’s workload to prepare him to take over as the starter for the 2021-2022 season.
I for one really, truly hate thinking of the Rangers in the post-Henrik Lundqvist era. However, Igor Shestyorkin seems to be the real deal, and if he can continue the arch of his current development, he can hopefully provide for a smooth transition into a new era.[/text_output][line id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]Last, but not least for the prospect talk, Mike Allen has had his full of discussion about the top of the draft, and wants to know about some potential late-round flyers to target.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2542″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Finding talent late in the draft is fantastic way to bolster a prospect pipeline. Everyone expects you to hit on your early picks, perhaps unreasonably so, given the fact that once you get outside of pick 15, it gets iffy quick in terms of NHL success track record of draft picks. However, finding a Henrik Lundqvist or Henrik Zetterberg in the seventh round, or a Brett Hull or Pavel Datsyuk in the sixth round, where nobody truly expects to find elite talent, can be the difference between being a mediocre team, and a cup contender (once the pick matures enough to crack the NHL of course, which obviously usually takes a few years at least).
In terms of specific guys to target in the late rounds, I will admit that I’m probably not the best person to answer this. In terms of my own draft research, I know the guys that I’ve targeted as potentials for the first two rounds very well, and I also familiarize myself with the third-round potentials. Outside of the top-100 or so prospects, my research is very spotty, and I’d highly recommend hitting up Josh Khalfin for a more thorough answer. However, that said, I do have a few guys that very well may be available outside of the first three rounds (I’m choosing to define “late round” as such, if you want my thoughts on second or third round guys, just hit me up).
The first that comes to mind is Jan Jenik. Jenik is a 17-year-old Czech winger that is the youngest player in the entire draft (turns 18 on September 15, which is the cutoff). I’ve seen some rankings and mocks that have him as high as the second round, but I’ve also seen a handful that have him outside of the top-90, so he kind of qualifies as a “late round” flyer, but I want to talk about him anyway. Jenik had a strong showing with the Czech U18 team, and he has seven goals and two assists in twelve games with the club. He’s got good length at 6’ 1’’, but is a bit of a bean pole at this point (only 165 lbs) and will need to put on a decent amount of strength. He has a well-rounded game however, has plus hands and stick handling, and has a motor that is up there with anyone in this draft class. I’d be perfectly happy nabbing Jenik with a third-round pick, but could potentially be available in the fourth round, depending on whose rankings you are looking at.
Tyler Madden, a right-winger playing for the Tri-City Storm in the USHL, is another name that could be still on the board in the fourth round that intrigues me. To be honest, the only reason I’m aware of Tyler Madden is because he’s the son of former New Jersey Devil John Madden, but I decided to look deeper into him recently. He’s a small center at only 5’ 10’’ and is on the older side of the draft, and is projected to go in the third or fourth rounds in most ranks and mocks I’ve seen. He’s committed to play at Northeastern University next year. As far as his skill set is concerned, his biggest strength is his skating; he’s got speed to burn, he’s well-balanced, and turn on a dime and goes from 0-60 about as fast as anyone in this draft that I’ve seen. He has some work to do in my opinion with regards to his puck skills (hence why he isn’t rated higher), and I don’t think he’ll ever be a big time scorer in the NHL, but he plays a responsible two-way game, seems to always be in the right spots, has a high motor, is pretty physical despite being very skinny (listed at 152), and has decent playmaking ability. Honestly, in the little I’ve seen of him, I can’t help but see a bit of Mats Zuccarello in his game.
One last name I’d like to throw out is Axel Andersson, a six-foot 180-pound right-handed defenseman that played on the Swedish U18 team and plays for Djurgardens IF J20 in the Swedish SuperElit league. I’m always intrigued by Swedish defenseman on the junior national team, and what really intrigued me about Andersson, other than his excellent name of course, was the fact that he put up 31 points in 42 games, good for the seventh most points among draft-eligible players in the SuperElit league, and second among defenseman. In fact, the only defenseman with more points per game than Andersson’s 0.74 (minimum 20 games played) in the SuperElite league is Adam Boqvist, who likely is going in the top-10 of this year’s draft, and whom I have ranked sixth overall. DraftSite has Andersson going at the top of the fifth round, at pick 126 overall, and I’d be perfectly happy taking Andersson as high as the third round.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Nonsense[/custom_headline][text_output]Thank you to everyone for all of those great hockey questions. However, we aren’t done yet! What good is a mailbag piece without a couple of nonsense questions?
Blueshirts Breakaway writer Shawn Taggart is up first, with a good question about my upcoming venture into fatherhood (wife is due June 3).[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2539″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Haha, well, my wife has a relative that works in the Rangers’ front office, and he was able to help hook us up with an awesome baby Adam Graves jersey (pictures will be plastered all over social media once he’s big enough to wear it), so trust me my friend, my son will have some very early lessons on the heartache associated with being a Rangers fan. Also, my wife has already begun to plan some of the photos she would like taken during the infant photo shoot we will get, and you can bet your ass that there is one involving my Zuccarello jersey. An Islanders fan friend of mine recently joked what I’d do if my son grows up to be an Islander fan. Short answer: he’d find himself enrolled in military school so quickly his head would spin.[/text_output][line id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]Next up is Chris Camerino (better known as MyDrumLuck in the Blueshirts Breakaway Discord Channel), who asked the following age-old question.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2540″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]I guess this is the payback I deserve for asking this very question to Brandon Fitzpatrick in a mailbag piece he did a little while back. My answer to this is I’d much rather fight one Chara-sized Zucc than three Zucc-sized Charas. Zdeno Chara has a mean streak in him that can rival anyone when he wants it to, so I think the size of the fight in that dog rivals he’s huge size in real life. Sure, Zuccarello is a pest, a fan favorite and fearless, but I’m not sure he’s mean, and that matters in a fight. Also, Chara flat out knows how to fight, so three mean dudes that know how to fight that are 5’ 7’’ would be much more difficult in my opinion than one 6’ 9’’ Zuccarello (I’m 6’ 1’’ for what it’s worth). Worst case scenario, you can just kick the 6’ 9’’ Zucc in the nuts and then end it while he’s on the ground. Dirty, sure, but hey I survive. You pull that shit with one of the 5’ 7’’ Charas, and you still have two more to deal with. Give the the 6’ 9’’ Zuccarello any day of the week.[/text_output][line id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]And last but not least, Wille posed the following question in the Blueshirts Breakaway Discord Channel.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2544″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]The answer is simple my friend, and I believe is best expressed through the following gifs[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2545″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2546″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2547″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2548″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2549″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””]
Author: Drew Way
Diehard New York Rangers fan since 1988! Always has been fascinated by sports statistics, and is a big proponent of supplementing analytics with the eye test. Also a big Yankees, Giants and Knicks fan.