The 2018 New York Jets Will Make the Playoffs

[image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”3059″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””]

[text_output]Trimming the Fat: The Jets cleaned house after the debacle that was the 2016 season. Losing established veterans David Harris, Nick Mangold, Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Darrelle Revis, Sheldon Richardson, and D’Brickashaw Ferguson was supposed to be a sign that the Jets were burning their roster to ground. All of these players were important pieces to the Jets roster the year prior, and cutting so much talent was a sign the Jets plan was to tank, get the top pick in the draft, take their QB of the future and start over from scratch.

Instead, what happened was remarkable. League observers thought the Jets were removing critical pieces of their roster. Look at the production the Jets lost however:

Harris: Signed by the Patriots, he dressed in only 10 games, made 15 tackles and is now retired

Mangold: Never played another down, is now retired

Ferguson: Never played another down, is now retired.

Marshall: Caught 18 passes for 185 yards for the Giants, managed to make Seattle’s 53-man roster.

Decker: 54 catches, 563 yards in Tennessee. Now Retired.

Darrelle Revis: Played half the Season in Kansas City and was miserable, highlighted by him refusing to make a tackle on the play that ended the Chiefs season. Now retired.

Richardson: Traded to Seattle for Jermaine Kearse (more on that later) and was ok, with a sack and 2 forced turnovers, but his locker room antics landed him a one year deal in Minnesota.

Only 2 of these players are still in the NFL. Marshall is likely in his last season. The fear that the Jets lost irreplaceable pieces turned out to be complete nonsense. And in fact, the Jets have already improved in several of these positions.

In 2017, wideouts Kearse and Robby Anderson each outproduced the combined stats of the departed Decker and Marshall. They now have dynamic WR/TE hybrid Quincy Enunwa returning from injury and explosive playmaker Terrelle Pryor in the fold.

They have replaced Revis, once the best corner in the world, but a shadow of his former self in his last seasons, with free agent Trumaine Johnson. Though not a household name, he is an elite shutdown corner.

David Harris was once the most underrated middle linebacker in the NFL. His replacement, Avery Williamson, now holds that title, as he anchored the middle of the Titans defense for years before landing in New York as a free agent. [/text_output]

[text_output]Notorious slacker Muhammad Wilkerson is in Green Bay doing his best Albert Haynesworth impression above. Locker room cancer Sheldon Richardson is on his third team in two seasons. Meanwhile, third round rookie Nate Shepherd has flashed in preseason and is already settled into the Jets starting defensive line.

The offensive line is still a concern, but the fact is that the Jets have replaced underperforming names with lesser known players who produce. This is how top notch teams build; by replacing ineffective veterans with better, younger players. Identifying which players are declining and replace them with younger, stronger, players is no easy task. General Manager Mike Maccagnan has done well to not only rebuild the overall talent level, but also nurture point number two:

New Team Culture: In 2009, Rex Ryan took over as head coach of the Jets and built a team who became known for their trash talking as much as their on field success. However, once that team stopped winning they did not stop talking. Even as they went from 11-5, to 8-8 to 4-12, they couldn’t stay out of the news for the wrong reasons.

The team tried to turn the mentality around when they hired Todd Bowles, but until the entire house got cleaned out, the toxicity of that locker room culture wasn’t going away. Revis’ lack of effort in 2016 was obvious and just as toxic as Marshall and Richardson constantly sniping at each other in the media. Once he signed his huge contract extension, Wilkerson completely quit on the team. The Jets have prioritized replacing toxicity with leadership, and that has started at the very top.

When team owner Woody Johnson was named the US Ambassador to England, he could no longer perform his duties with the team and his brother Chris took over as acting owner. Woody is a man who has been described with such words as “clueless”, “weasel” and “apathetic.” He reportedly wouldn’t learn the names of his players, coaches, and staff. Most ordinary people have had a boss like this, and know how quickly everyone learns to hate them. Working for someone you hate is one of the fastest ways to kill any productivity, and NFL players are no different.[/text_output]

[image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”3066″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Chris Johnson could not be any more different, though. He eats lunch with the players regularly. He treats them as individuals, and has even gotten to know their families. Last December, he attended a meeting with several players and members of the NYPD in order to help both sides take positive steps to reduce police brutality. He didn’t do this for attention or accolades. In fact, the story didn’t even come out until several weeks after it happened. Johnson had learned that his players were genuinely concerned about the issue and he wanted to help them.

If you’ve ever had a boss who sticks his neck out for you, and genuinely cares about what is important to their employees, you know how much more you want to work for that boss. It can be argued that Chris Johnson’s role with the Jets is the most important development the team has had since they hired Bill Parcells in 1997.

But ownership isn’t the only place the Jets have improved in terms of leadership. Jermaine Kearse isn’t just an important receiving target, but one of the first guys in the building every day, and last to leave. I witnessed first hand at Jets practice this summer, Kearse leading the team in wind sprints, hustling everywhere he went, and giving guidance to younger players.

Shepherd is not just turning into a viable starter, but is a remarkable story of perseverance. He was forced to drop out of college due to financial trouble, and worked odd jobs for two years just to be able to afford to play college ball. His love for the game is obvious and he seems entrenched in the starting lineup.

Second year safety Jamal Adams is one of the most passionate, intense players in the NFL. He is not only immensely talented, but puts so much effort into every snap. Consider this play against Oakland in week 2. Many younger players would stop pursuit from the backside, assuming their teammates would make the play in the backfield. Adams is not most players. He sprints across the field, hurdles two other players and prevents a touchdown.[/text_output][x_video_embed id=”” class=”” style=””][/x_video_embed]

[text_output]Remember that this is a rookie, playing in his second game as a pro. Effort cannot be coached, and this sort of play from a top tier talent like Adams will be the difference between him being a pretty good player, and a future All-Pro

QB Josh McCown is more coach than player at this point, affectionately referred to as Uncle Josh by his teammates. Although unspectacular as a player, he has stuck in the NFL for 17 years, and is a consummate pro. He has taken rookie QB Sam Darnold under his wing since the moment Darnold was drafted. Speaking of which…
[/text_output]

[image type=”none” float=”left” src=”3061″ alt=”” href=”” title=”Behold His Majesty” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””]

[text_output]SAM FUCKING DARNOLD: I am by no means a draft expert. I understand the game well enough to make decent predictions for players, but I never spend the time watching film on prospects until they are drafted, at which point I will do my homework on who my team has picked.

This year was different, though. On St. Patrick’s Day, when the Jets traded three second round picks to move up to third overall, I began feverishly scouting all four QBs that projected to be taken in that range. My thoughts on Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen and Allen would be an article on its own, but my overall thoughts going into Draft Day were.

“If its Mayfield, I’m doing backflips. If its Rosen, I’m very, very happy. If its Darnold, I’m content. If its Allen, I’m jumping off a fucking bridge.”

Suffice to say that I was underwhelmed when the Jets passed on Rosen for Darnold, but I was comfortable with all three as potential franchise QBs. The preseason has made it obvious that my draft board was not quite right, however.

Mayfield has been decent in Cleveland, though he has been hesitant to pull the trigger at times. His arm talent is obvious and with experience, he will get more comfortable making snap decisions in the pocket.

Rosen has gotten little help from his offensive line and receivers, and he has been visibly frustrated. This is troubling, considering that attitude was the big knock on him in the draft process. There have also been reports that he has been outplayed in camp by undrafted rookie free agent Chad Kanoff.

Future used car salesman Josh Allen has been unable to complete more than 55% of his passes against backups, makes easy throws look difficult, and too often looks lost when trying to read defenses. The fact that he lost the week one job to Nathan Peterman, a career 49% passer with a whopping 38.4 rating, should be terrifying for fans of the Buffalo Bills.
[/text_output]

[text_output]Darnold, though, has been brilliant. His vision, accuracy and arm talent have been undeniable. He has shown an ability to move through progressions unlike any rookie since Andrew Luck. When watching him, he does not look like a rookie, demonstrating maturity far beyond someone who only reached the legal drinking age in August. Ball security, the biggest criticism he faced in college, has been a non-issue, despite shaky blocking in front of him. Even Vegas agrees that Sam is the real deal, as he is now the betting favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. For some fantastic analysis of Darnold’s next level mental game, see these tweets from Dan Orlovsky:[/text_output]

[text_output]Side note: Orlovksy is best known for running out of his own end zone but his twitter is a phenomenal resource if you want to better understand the game of football
[/text_output]

[text_output]Yogi Berra once said that “90% of the game is half mental.” which, despite its awkward phrasing, is true, particularly for the QB position. Quarterbacks have more to process in a short span of time than any other player in any sport. There are 45 seconds between each play at maximum, and on each play, a QB must know:

Which 11 players are on the field for the defense?

Which 10 other players are on the field for the offense?

What is the primary play call?

What do all 10 other players do on the primary call?

What is the secondary play call?

What do all 10 other players do on the secondary call?

How is the defense aligned?

What is the defense’s tendency in this situation?

Does the defense look like they are playing to tendency?

How does their alignment affect the primary play call?

If I audible, will they change their look?

What is the blocking scheme?

Who is going to be rushing and dropping into coverage?

After the snap, did they give me what they showed me?

Are there free rushers?

How do I attack what they are giving me?

That probably took you more than 45 seconds to read, and an NFL QB must do all these things 60-75 times a game, while multiple 300 pound men attempt to beat them to to a pulp. The ability to do these things in a short period of time is what separates the great from the mediocre. Athleticism matters to NFL QBs, obviously, but that alone will never be enough in the pros. Most fans don’t realize that Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell were more talented than Tom Brady and Drew Brees could ever pretend to be. But the former lacked the ability to process the game at the NFL level and are the two biggest busts of all time, while the latter will both be first ballot Hall of Famers. If Darnold can continue to build on the fantastic things he’s shown this preseason, he will be special.[/text_output]

[image type=”circle” float=”none” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” src=”3062″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”Live look-in at the AFC Playoff Picture” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””]

[text_output]The Mediocre AFC: Consider the conference the Jets play in. New England  is a virtual lock to make the playoffs. But aside from that, the AFC is filled with mediocrity and question marks:

Miami- Entering what is probably the final make or break year for Ryan Tannehill, they downgraded at receiver and running back this year.

Buffalo- This may be the worst roster in the NFL. Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman are both a mess, there is no receiving talent and the offensive line has looked like a disaster.

Cleveland- Hue Jackson seems like a nice guy, but a trainwreck of a coach. He has a 3% win percentage as head coach of the Browns, which will not improve by much, despite the talent on the roster.

Cincinnati- Plenty of talent, but there is no reason to believe in a Marvin Lewis-led team until they can demonstrate the ability to win consistently.

Baltimore- The Joe Flacco contract is a cap nightmare, and the rest of the offense has suffered as a result. This team has only made the playoffs once since the Super Bowl victory in 2012

Pittsburgh- Le’veon Bell, the best RB in the game is holding out seemingly indefinitely, and Mike Tomlin’s teams have a long history of playing down to their competition. This could be his last year with the Steelers if things go off the rails

Jacksonville- Jaguars have way too much faith in Blake Bortles for someone with a 34% career win percentage. There is a lot of potential for the egos on this team to self-destruct when the going gets tough. In particular, Jalen Ramsey spent the entire summer calling stars like Andrew Luck and Rob Gronkowski bad. What might he say if Bortles struggles?

Houston- Very talented team, but everyone is ready to crown Deshaun Watson MVP after only 7 games. He looked good, but this is way too small of a sample size to say he is truly elite. He may improve, but teams may also now have a better plan for how to defend him.

Indianapolis- Offensive line and Defense are both still well below average. Andrew Luck is good enough to hide those flaws, assuming he can stay healthy. That is a big assumption for a QB that has missed 26 games in three years with injuries to his throwing shoulder and internal organs.

Tennessee- Playoff potential, but there is no true difference maker on defense. Marcus Mariota must stay healthy, but even then, he is not good enough to hide the other flaws on this team.

Kansas City- They are all-in on Patrick Mahomes, who has only played one game in his career. If he falls flat on his face, this team will struggle.

San Diego- Injuries abound, they have had the most insane string of bad luck over the past few seasons. Philip Rivers is still elite but until they are able to break the curse that’s hung over them it will be difficult to pick them.

Denver- Which Case Keenum will they get? The 2017 MVP candidate version who went 11-3, or the 2012-2016 mediocre backup version, who went 9-15? Until we can say for sure, there is no reason to believe this offense will be better than a year ago.

Oakland- Trading the best player on your roster for draft picks in September is god awful asset management. Trading him simply because you didn’t want to use your cap space is even worse.

Of these teams, 4 will make the playoffs. On talent alone, Kansas City, Houston, Jacksonville, San Diego and Cincinnati are ahead of the Jets. The rest are either on par or well behind them, particularly the teams in the AFC East, Miami and Buffalo. However, San Diego and Cincinnati are not well coached teams who consistently underachieve.

With games against Buffalo, Miami, and New England (twice each) and Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Houston, Denver, Cleveland, the Jets will be on the positive side of .500 in conference play. Remember that they beat Jacksonville and Kansas City, both division winners, a year ago, when their roster was worse than it is now. In 2017, only 1 AFC team with a winning record in the conference finished outside the playoffs, and that was Baltimore who missed on tiebreakers. [/text_output]

[image src=”3063″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””]

[text_output]Bottom Line: The Jets will be better than most fans think. They have the best rookie QB in the NFL thus far. Their offense has a plethora of weapons. In today’s NFL, you do not need a true superstar playmaker on offense to be elite. Consider offenses like Philadelphia, New England, and Kansas City, that succeed due to their multitude of weapons. The Jets have depth at wide receiver and running back on par with New England, and not all that far behind Philly. Their level of competition is average at best. The defense is stout down the middle, and their secondary has a chance to truly be special. They are an edge rusher away from being an elite caliber defense.

They will be a playoff team in 2018. [/text_output]