The 2021 NHL season is in full swing, the Super Bowl is over, a bunch of old white guys dressed up like it is 1850 pulled a groundhog out of the ground to alert us that we will have six more weeks of winter. All of that can only mean one thing of course: it is time for us at Blueshirts Breakaway to begin our analysis of the 2021 NHL draft class.
Below you will find the aggregate site and individual ranks from Drew Way, George Obremski and Rich Coyle. As always with our draft analysis, we organize the players into tiers, and we stress that the tiers are far more important than the individual ranks. Our tier methodology is simple: all players on a tier are more or less interchangeable in terms of their exact ordering. Yes, we have slight preferences between the players that go into the individual rankings, but we would not argue against any ordering of players within a tier.
In this article, each contributor also provides some analysis and commentary in their own, dedicated section. The assignment given to each person was simple: write about literally anything you want related to this class. Drew of course, decided to stay on-brand and provides his early frontrunners for the fourth annual Ty Smith Memorial Trophy. George, who is half Japanese himself, highlights the Japanese-born prospect Yusaku Ando, who if drafted (he should be drafted in our collective opinions) will become just the fourth Japanese born player drafted in the NHL, and only the 3rd in the last 20 years. Rich took a more traditional approach and provides analysis on a handful of his favorite prospects at this point in the draft cycle.
All prospect profile data is courtesy of eliteprospects, unless otherwise stated.
Blueshirts Breakaway Aggregate Rankings
Drew Way
Doing hockey prospect analysis is difficult enough in the best of situations thanks to the sheer volume of players and leagues across the globe that factor into the analysis. Now throw into the mix the fact that we are in the middle of a global pandemic that has obvious severe on-ice ramifications for these kids, but I’m sure many have been impacted significantly off the ice. To make a long story short, for those of you that like cracking jokes that hockey prospect analysis is barely better than throwing darts at a dart board—you might have a bit of a point this year.
That said, I enjoy this work, I enjoy interacting with all of you reading this, and for whatever reason you seem to (somewhat) enjoy the work I put out. So, I want to have some fun with this, and really lean into my Ty Smith Memorial Trophy schtick. For those of you unfamiliar, beginning with the 2018 draft, I really latch myself to a player that I am very confident will become an impactful player at the NHL level one day, but who is getting underrated by much of the professional and main stream hockey prospect analysts. Ty Smith was the original recipient in 2018, hence the name of the award, and was followed by Pavel Dorofeyev in 2019 and Jan Mysak in 2020. So with that, here are some early nominees for the 2021 Ty Smith Memorial Trophy. I’m sure each of these players is eagerly pulling out their phones to call their agents (family advisors?) and parents now to break the wonderful news to them that they are considered early front runners for such a prestigious award. I will note that these are simply a list of guys that I have my eye on now and that I really like more than the consensus at this moment in time—it is entirely possible this ends up looking very different come the draft (whenever that will end up being).
Aatu Räty
Prospect Profile:
- Position – Center
- Team (league) – Kärpät (Liiga)
- Nation – Finland
- Birth Date – November 14, 2002
- Handedness – Left
- Height & Weight – 6’ 1’’, 181 lbs
Aatu Räty is a name that everyone who has paid even one iota of attention to this draft class has known about for quite some time now, so I’ll keep this short and sweet. Yes, most analysts still have Räty in their top-10, and typically I don’t like including guys this highly ranked in the discussion for the Ty Smith Memorial Trophy. That said, I think people are starting to sleep on him and focus too much on his production (lack thereof), and they are letting the fact that he has disappointed relative to the crazy hype he garnered in his age 16 season cloud their judgement of his ability.
Is he a perfect prospect? No, and I think there are legitimate concerns to be had about the fact that he looked flat out disinterested at times playing for the Kärpät U20 team last year after being demoted from the big leagues. However, he has looked much more like himself since regaining his spot on Kärpät, and I think when Räty has his A game, he is easily in the conversation for the best player in this class. He likely won’t win this fun little award of mine because most recognize that he is a top-10 pick, but I just wanted to take this time to tell everyone that, in my opinion at least, he very much still has the potential to be the first name called on draft day.
Cole Sillinger
Prospect Profile:
- Position – Center
- Team (league) – Medicine Hat (WHL), but currently playing with Sioux Falls (USHL) due to the pandemic’s impact on the WHL season
- Nation – Canada
- Birth Date – May 16, 2003
- Handedness – Left
- Height & Weight – 6’ 0’’, 187 lbs
I’ll be 100% honest here, in early 2020 (maybe even earlier than that) I saw my friend—and for my money one of the best prospect analysts out there—Sam Stern pumping Cole Sillinger’s tires, which is when I knew I had to pay close attention to Cole. Needless to say, I have been VERY impressed with everything I’ve seen, and he is an easy front runner for the 2021 Ty Smith Memorial Trophy.
Anyone that glances at his eliteprospects page can see that Cole produces at a high level. He placed third among all WHL rookies in scoring in 2019-2020, despite missing a handful of games, posting 22 goals and 31 points in 48 games. Due to the pandemic’s impact on the WHL, he currently is playing for the Sioux Falls Stampede in the USHL, which 9 games in he already has 9 goals and 6 assists. While a small sample size, that 1.67 is good for fourth among all USHL players, and third among draft eligibles, behind Sasha Pastujov (USNTDP) and Matt Coronato (Chicago).
With regards to his scouting profile, let’s get the one negative in his game out of the way before we talk about all of the positives. Cole Sillinger is not a great skater. He’s not a bad skater by any stretch, don’t get me wrong, but his skating is probably the weakest part of his game. His top-end speed is average at best, but he has decent agility and is a powerful skater who defender really struggle to knock off the puck. He also has very good edgework, which combined with his agility and strength allows him to get to pretty much wherever he wants on the ice. But again, he’ll never be the type that can take the top off a defense.
Some criticize his defensive play, but honestly, I think he is a fine, capable defender. Don’t get me wrong, he certainly won’t have Selke Trophy nominee on his future resume, but based on my viewings of him he consistently shows good defensive awareness and hustle in his own zone, does not try to cheat for offense and knows how to use his length and strength to keep opponents out of the high danger areas of the ice. His lack of speed can be a bit of a concern when defending against transitional play however, which is the only true weakness of his defensive game in my opinion.
Now for the good: literally everything else about his game. He is not an overly physical player, but he is strong, an active forechecker, finishes his checks and occasionally will flatten an opponent attempting to take the body on him via a well-timed reverse check. He is very patient and confident with the puck on his stick, and he frequently will allow the play to develop in order to create a higher danger chance for his team. While he has a shoot first mentality, he is a willing and able passer, and he has a fantastic slap pass which frequently fools the defenders.
His combination of poise, puck skills, strength on the puck, vision and hands make him an absolute nightmare for opposing defenders. Just take a look at this clip, courtesy of the USHL twitter account, where Sillinger just powers by the Tri City defenseman before getting the assist on the play.
Far and away however, the most impressive aspect of Cole Sillinger’s game is his shot. Cole Sillinger has an absolutely unreal release, and has the ability to snap off a deadly accurate and powerful shot at the blink of an eye. While he possesses a full suite of shooting talents, his snapshot is probably his most impressive tool, which allows him to get off dangerous shots even in high traffic areas. He also has an impressive ability to receive passes, and rarely is seen fumbling a pass trying to set up his shot. He also has a powerful slapshot, and is great at getting to areas in the offensive zone that allow his teammates to set him up for a scoring chance. As for his wrist shot, well, just see for yourself.
There is still a lot of time left before the 2021 NHL draft, and obviously a lot can still happen. That said, as things stand now, Cole Sillinger would be one of my top targets for the Rangers if they wind up outside of the top half of the lottery.
Corson Ceulemans
Prospect Profile:
- Position – Defense
- Team (league) – Brooks (AJHL)
- Nation – Canada
- Birth Date – May 5, 2003
- Handedness – Right
- Height & Weight – 6’ 2’’, 196 lbs
Hey Drew, if you had to pick one player that is routinely being ranked outside of the first round that you believe has a chance to wind up being picked in the lottery, who would that be?
Why, I am so glad you asked! My answer at this moment in time would be Corson Ceulemans.
Corson Ceulemans is a player drawing a lot of Cale Makar comparisons. While it might be a bit of a lazy comparison, likely stemming from the fact that they are both offensively gifted defenseman playing for the Brooks Bandits in the AJHL during their draft years, Ceulemans does have the raw skill set that, in a normal, non-pandemic riddled year, could lead to him making a meteoric rise up the ranks much in the same manner than Cale Makar did in his draft year. Also similar to Makar, he will be taking his talents to the NCAA after his time in the AJHL, as he has committed to play with the University of Wisconsin.
Ceulemans posted 35 points—5 goals and 30 assists—in 44 games in his DY-1 season in the AJHL, which was good for tenth among all AJHL defenseman, and first among his peers a year away from draft eligibility, many of which registered at least 10 more games played than Ceulemans. Even more impressive is the fact that Ceulemans ranked seventh among all AJHL defenseman that played at least 20 games in primary points per-game, with 0.4, a figure that was far and away the best among his DY-1 peers. Want something even MORE impressive? If you look at just even strength production, Ceulemans rises to fourth in the AJHL in primary points per-game, and first among both draft year players and DY-1 players.
My belief in Ceulemans however goes far beyond the fact that he put up points in the AJHL. He is a big, strong and explosive defenseman that possesses a fantastic combination of agility and power in his skating style. He also has great footwork and edgework, which combined with his agility allow him to quickly pivot and change directions as needed, making for a very elusive skater for someone his size. He also has a fantastic release on his shot, and can quickly get off an accurate wrister while weaving through the offensive zone, making him someone that goalies need to keep constant focus on. He also possesses a heavy shot from the point that must be respected by the defense.
He oozes confidence when he has the puck on his stick, and he possesses great hands and stickhandling ability for any skater, let alone a defenseman. His combination of poise, vision, and silky smooth hands helps to make him one of the best passing defenseman I’ve seen in this class. He has a diverse set of passing tricks as well, and can make crisp, accurate passes anywhere on the ice. While he is skilled at using his passing ability to quickly transition the play up ice, also consistently shows good judgement on when it is best to take the puck up the ice on his own, and he can lead a rush with the best of them.
Ceulemans is not fantastic in his own zone, but he has improved a lot over the past year or so that I’ve seen him, and I feel confident saying by the time the draft comes around he will at worst be considered a decent defender in his own zone. Despite being an offensive defenseman, he does not cheat in his own zone, and he shows good awareness and does not get lost in the play. His gap control could use a little bit of work, but this also has seemingly improved a lot over the last year and I would anticipate this trend to continue. He is a tenacious puck battler as well, and you will rarely see him loose the puck in a scrum along the boards. While he is not the most physical player, he also is not afraid to engage when needed, and his use of functional physicality within the confines of a play is certainly a plus. It’s difficult to project how far a player can rise in the ranks given all the uncertainty with this year. But mark my words, if he stays healthy and is provided ample opportunity to showcase his abilities, he will slowly make his way into the lottery conversation as the draft date nears.
Scott Morrow
Prospect Profile:
- Position – Defense
- Team (league) – Shattuck St. Mary’s (USHS)
- Nation – U.S.A.
- Birth Date – November 1, 2002
- Handedness – Right
- Height & Weight – 6’ 2’’, 192 lbs
Rich provides a fantastic profile of Morrow below, so I encourage you to check that out if you want to know why I have Morrow as an early contender here. I’ll just note that on talent alone, Morrow is absolutely someone worthy of a first-round selection. Playing for a U.S. prep school as opposed to in the USHL will make it difficult for many to view him and properly contextualize his performance, but I think he is absolutely a name that everyone should have firmly on their radars.
William Strömgren
Prospect Profile:
- Position – Left Wing
- Team (league) – MODO (Allsvenskan)
- Nation – Sweden
- Birth Date – June 7, 2003
- Handedness – Left
- Height & Weight – 6’ 2’’, 161 lbs
William Strömgren is the least known of the prospects I mentioned in this article, and I haven’t heard much buzz about him at all. In fact, when doing my industry scan of rankings when preparing for this article to get a feel for who am I valuing more than the consensus, few had him inside their top-50. I currently have Strömgren at 34, and to be honest as I write this profile, I’m so tempted to move him a few spots higher still. To be completely honest, the only reason I am not is because I’ve already calculated the consensus ranks for our sites, so me changing one of my ranks would cause me to have to change that up, which is a pain in the ass.
Strömgren popped up on my radar last year when I was checking out a MODO J20 game to take a look at an often talked about 2019 prospect, William Wallinder, and Strömgren is a player I came away perhaps the most impressed with. He’s a tall, lanky winger that can absolutely fly on the ice and has skill to burn for days. Similar to Ceulemans, he possesses a great blend of power and agility in his skating, and also has great edgework to help round out his very strong skating ability, which might be his strongest asset as a player.
Strömgren has smooth, reliable hands and at times looks like he has the puck on a string with the way he can stick handle. He is a great pass receiver, but also is a more than capable passer. However, aside from his skating, the hallmark in his offensive toolkit is certainly his shooting ability. Strömgren certainly has a shoot first mentality, and he isn’t afraid to let it rip from anywhere in the offensive zone. He doesn’t possess a particularly strong shot, but he has a very deceptive release that he can get off in high traffic areas without any issues. Above all else however, what makes him a dangerous scorer is his combination of skating, hands and deceptive release, which allows him to get his shot off when he wants it, and where he wants it from.
Now, I obviously just had some very glowing remarks about him, so it’s perfectly reasonable to question why I don’t have him firmly in my first round, and why many have him outside of their top-50. The answer to that is he is a real bean pole out there, and currently has very little physicality to his game. He has the length, skating, sense and skills to one day become a good defensive player, but at this moment he makes little (positive) impact on the defensive side of the ice. However, he’s still young, and as he puts on some strength and grows into his frame more I am confident he can become a good all-around player. I’ll be totally honest, perhaps the reason I enjoy Strömgren’s game so much, and why he is a prime contender for the 2021 Ty Smith Memorial Trophy is that he reminds me so much of a previous winner: Pavel Dorofeyev.
George Obremski
While not currently a realistic option to be in the conversation as a potential first round pick in the 2021 NHL draft, Yusaku Ando is a prospect of great interest to me, as someone who is half Japanese myself. Yusaku Ando being drafted and one day making the NHL could prove to be great for the expansion of the sport I love into an area of the world that is near and dear to my heart: Japan. If drafted in the 2021 NHL entry draft, Ando would be the fourth Japanese born player drafted in the NHL and the 2nd in the last 20 years.
Ando played his age 16 season with the Youngstown Phantoms of the USHL, where he started to make some noticeable waves around the prospect world. As the third youngest player in the league, he was able to score 25 points in 45 games, the most of any 2003-born player in the USHL (excluding USNTDP players). After his strong rookie campaign, he committed to play for Minnesota State University, which will begin with the 2021-2022 NCAA season.
At the time of writing this, Ando currently as 9 points (2 goals and 7 assists) in 20 games played this year with Youngstown. Standing at just 5’ 7’’ and weighing in at only 147 lbs, Ando is a very undersized player, and it is evident at times when watching him play in the USHL. Due to his size concerns, he was drafted only 329th (22nd round) in the 2019 USHL draft, and his diminutive frame will likely hamper his NHL draft stock as well. However, he proved in his rookie season that he has the skill to overcome his size concerns—at least, at the USHL level—and only time will tell if he can continue to overcome going forward. I truly hope he continues to improve and gradually moves up in the ranks in the 2021 NHL draft. There will be multiple challenges for him this year and going forward in college for Minnesota State, but I think he has the skill and the drive to overcome them and continue to climb up the rankings to become the highest drafted Japanese-born player in NHL history.
Rich Coyle
The 2021 NHL Draft is an interesting one. It is sandwiched between what are in my opinion two fantastic drafts in the 2020 NHL Draft and the 2022 NHL Draft. The 2021 NHL Draft lacks the serious star power that we saw in 2020, and that we will see in 2022. There is no Alexis Lafrenière or Quinton Byfield slated to go 1-2 in this draft. At the moment, it looks like there is a group of 5 or so players that all have the potential to go #1 overall. This group of top players is not at the level of crop in the aforementioned drafts. Last year, my first tier included Alexis Lafrenière, a slum dunk first overall talent. This year, my first tier includes 5 players. Are those 5 players on the level of Alexis Lafrenière? Absolutely not. My tiers this year need to be looked at with a curve and cannot be compared to the tiers of years past. In terms of talent, the 2021 NHL Draft most closely resembles the 2017 NHL Draft. This draft lacks star power but I believe what it lacks in star power, it makes up for with its depth.
Here’s a little bit on some of my favorite players in the draft thus far.
Luke Hughes
At the moment, I have Luke Hughes at the top of my ranking. He’s the third and final member of the Hughes clan to come up through the NTDP and establish himself as a top tier NHL Draft Prospect. A left-handed defenseman like his brother Quinn, Luke is a dynamic playmaker on the backend who uses his elite skating ability to excel in all three zones. He’s not overly physical in the defensive zone, but positions himself well and uses his skating to retrieve pucks and start up in transition. I believe it is in transition where Luke excels the most—he almost never turns the puck over and is always making smart decisions when it comes to zone exits and entries. He’s an excellent catalyst in the offensive zone and displays some elite passing ability that is reminiscent of his brother Quinn. Luke is the tallest of the Hughes brothers at six foot two, but he’s still pretty frail and can do with bulking up and filling out his frame. From a production standpoint, Luke has been steadily producing at over a point-per-game for the U-18’s this season. You might be saying to yourself, “Well Rich, didn’t Quinn crush the NCAA with Michigan during his draft year?” Yes, he absolutely did. However, comparing the draft year seasons of the Hughes brothers is not fair in my eyes. Quinn was one of the older first year eligibles in the 2018 NHL Draft whereas Luke Hughes is a week or so away from being 2022 eligible. If Luke was older, then maybe he would have played in the NCAA during his draft year. Luke’s draft year scoring totals most closely resemble that of Flyers’ 2019 first-rounder Cam York, who played on the stacked U-18 team with Jack Hughes, Trevor Zegras, and Alex Turcotte. All in all, Luke Hughes’ ceiling is an elite #1 defenseman whose point totals may even surpass his brother Quinn at his peak in the NHL.
Matthew Beniers
In this edition of my rankings, Matthew Beniers is just behind Kent Johnson for being my top forward in the draft. Beniers and Johnson are both on my first tier, so that could change very quickly given how close they are to each other already. Beniers is a prospect many in the scouting community have known about for a while now. With regards to his play style, Beniers is a two-way dynamo who excels in just about everything he does on the ice. He’s a great skater with terrific offensive instincts. Beniers does a great job on the backcheck, often causing turnovers and flipping the play up ice. In transition, Beniers will sometimes chip pucks out and dump them in, but for the most part, he often succeeds in controlling his zone exits/entries and maintains possession going into the offensive zone. Beniers is a slick playmaker who has filthy hands and an elite ability to anticipate where teammates will be and distribute the puck. Furthermore, he is one of the most tenacious forwards I have ever seen on the forecheck and gives 110% on every shift. He is never willingly giving the opposition an inch. If you watched the World Juniors, you know that he brought some serious energy to that U.S forecheck. He will be an NHL coaches (*cough* David Quinn *cough*) dream.
Production wise, Beniers made a name for himself in his draft minus one season playing with the U-18 NTDP. Most players in the NTDP play for the U-17 NTDP during their draft minus one year. However, Beniers being a little bit older and committed to play for Michigan during his draft year, he spent the year with the U-18’s. The U-18 group as a whole in 2018-19 was pretty underwhelming and deprived of high-end talent relative to the group from the year before. As a result, Beniers took the bull by the horns and established himself as one of the, if not the best players on a talent deficient team, posting 41 points in 44 games. Fast forward to his draft year, in the midst of a great year in the NCAA, Beniers played a crucial role on the U.S team that took home gold at the World Juniors. At Michigan, Beniers currently has 13 points in 14 games (0.93 P/GP) and is playing a pivotal role in their season as well. Beniers’ current 0.93 points per game (along with teammate Kent Johnson’s 1.13 P/GP) is on pace to be among the best points per game totals for first year draft eligible forward in the NCAA since Jack Eichel’s ridiculous 1.78 back in 2014-15. Considering there are a lot of mouths to feed in that Michigan forward group, I think that is fantastic for Beniers, and I project him to be a high-end first line center at his peak, capable of posting 60-70 points a season while also being a true defensive menace.
Sean Behrens
Anyone interested in Domenick Fensore on steroids? All kidding aside, Sean Behrens is one of those diminutive defenders who gets ranked low because of his size and concerns about how he will be able to handle himself in the pros. I think Quinn Hughes has dispelled those concerns. If Luke Hughes was not on this U-18 team, then Behrens would be getting the spotlight. He has the potential to skyrocket up my rankings. As was previously mentioned, Behrens is a smaller defenseman (5’9) who seems to be getting overlooked by many in the scouting community. He’s a great skater who is sound in all three zones and will quarterback your powerplay. I’m not sure he’s as good of a skater as Luke Hughes is, but Behrens is certainly up there. You may think size limits him, but this kid throws big hits like there is no tomorrow.
Behrens maintains good gap control and positions himself extremely well on defense. This allows him to throw a hit or use his active stick to close defenders down.
In transition, he uses his skating to almost be an automatic controlled zone exit/entry, something I absolutely love to see with players. Once he’s in the offensive zone, he does a great job reading the play and picking out teammates for scoring chances with his phenomenal passing ability. Sometimes he’ll flash some soft hands for some ridiculous moves that will leave you in awe. He stands to improve his shot, but I have no doubt in my mind that he will do so. In his draft minus one season, Behrens production was pretty good. In 45 games with the U-17 NTDP, Behrens had 37 points in 45 games. In 6 games with the U-18’s, he had 3 points. This season with the U-18’s Behrens has 18 points in 25 games. If he plays in the rest of the games this season and continues scoring at the current pace, he’ll finish with around 31-32 points in 44 games played. Slightly behind what he posted last season, but considering it’s a battle with Luke Hughes and Aidan Hreschuk to get PP1 time with the U-18’s this season, I think those numbers are pretty impressive. Going forward, I absolutely love that Behrens is headed to the University of Denver and I fully expect his production to explode there. It will be interesting to follow his development path. I wouldn’t put it past him to become a lower-end #1 defender or a very good #2 defender at his peak in the pros.
Scott Morrow
Scott Morrow is a name that caught my eye earlier this winter. I was finally able to get my eyes on some of his game film with Shattuck and I thought to myself—why isn’t this kid in the USHL at the very least? Morrow is a right-handed, aggressive, two way defender. I think Morrow is pretty raw, but if he can put it all together then you’re looking at a hell of a player here. Skating wise, he’s a pretty good skater, but could use some work on his acceleration to allow him to get to his top speed quicker. In the defensive zone, Morrow isn’t afraid to attack the puck carrier without sacrificing his gap control or positioning. In simpler terms, his aggressive play often does not lead to an errant hit that may allow the opposition a high danger scoring chance. Overall, Morrow is pretty sound in the defensive zone. He shuts the opposition down. In the games that I have watched, Morrow has been smooth and strong in transition. Nothing really to speak of here—he just gets the job done. He doesn’t try anything flashy that may lead to a turnover. Pretty safe in transition. He has robust offensive ability. He’s a very good distributor of the puck. Morrow has some nice hands and you’ll see him flash a nifty move from time to time. He combines his offensive ability with his terrific IQ and ability to read the play to seek out the best scoring opportunities in the offensive zone. He certainly has the ability to command a powerplay at higher junior and even possibly pro levels. The problem with Scott Morrow is the level of competition he plays against. As I mentioned before, I would have loved to see him play in the USHL. Evaluating players in a prep league is truly a crapshoot. The production really goes out the window. That is why you see so many people ranking Scott Morrow lower than I have him. Why do I have him so high? I believe what we see from Morrow is truly indicative of the player he is. Is he raw? Absolutely. He needs to refine his game. I think the University of North Dakota is a great place for him to do it. A ton of NHL prospects are/have passed through there in recent years. I think Scott Morrow is going to be a very good player. It’s hard to predict what his ceiling will be. If he continues on an upward trend, then I think he could be a good #2 or #3 defender in the future. However, there are tons of variables with Scott Morrow, so he’s definitely one to keep a very close eye on.
Honorable Mentions
I didn’t write about them but I love Nikita Chibrikov, Alexander Kisakov, and Lorenzo Canonica as forward prospects. All three of them have serious potential to boom up my rankings and I may be writing about them in future rankings pieces. I look forward to diving deeper into the American crop in future articles as I believe they are very underrated. Matthew “Mackie” Samoskevich, Jeremy Wilmer, Matthew Coronato, Ryan Ufko, and Avery Hayes are just a few of the players I plan on talking about in the coming weeks and months ahead.
