2019 NHL Draft Rankings – Draft Lottery Edition

Tonight is the big night, the night where we finally find out who will be the winners of the Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko sweepstakes! As such, I felt today was the perfect day to release our updated 2019 NHL draft rankings. Our last rankings were published in December, and since we are talking about teenagers in the prime of their development years, obviously there has been A LOT of change. League play is now over for most of the prospects, and so we now have a pretty good feel for where to slot in each prospect. Things of course will change between now and the actual draft, as there are still playoffs and some international tournaments between now and June, but I don’t anticipate nearly as much change between now and June as we saw between December and now. The main reason for this is because personally, I’m a big advocate of league play is much more indicative of true talent than international tournaments, and based on my research and experience with prospect analysis, league play production also typically translates more accurately to the pro ranks than international play. Obviously, this isn’t true for all players, but overall I find it’s true more often than not.

Below, you will find rankings from myself (Drew Way) and fellow prospect analysts and enthusiasts George Obremski and Rich Coyle. This is Rich’s first time publishing his ranks with us, and we hope you enjoy. Rich, George and myself all have very different methodologies when approaching our draft research, analysis and rankings, which is reflected in the ranks. We hope that presenting you with ranks from three very different people can help provide you with some alternative perspectives to help round out your own research. For George and Rich you get their straight rankings, while for myself you also get my thoughts and analysis on some key players in the draft I chose to highlight.

In this iteration, we expand our rankings out to a full two rounds worth of players. The usual caveats apply: we are analyzing the play of teenagers here in a sport where often the line between success and failure is the odd bounce of a rubber disc, so it is far from an exact science. Further, every prospect analyst has their own process and techniques, and while I have my own views—which I explain in my section below—everyone is entitled to their own beliefs and process, and the variations here can lead to very different rankings from one analyst to another. One last note before we begin: unless otherwise stated, all player demographic data is courtesy of eliteprospects.com.

I wrote up a fairly detailed explanation of my process in my last rankings article, but here is a summary. As many of you know, I’m a massive advocate of analytics/advanced stats/fancy stats/whatever the hell you want to call it, and I obviously leverage all the data I can get my hands on when conducting my research for my draft rankings. However, context is crucial for understanding analytics, especially when you are comparing players in different leagues and levels, and some leagues make certain information, data and context much more readily available than others. While even in pro analysis I highly advocate balancing traditional scouting (eye test) with the use of analytics, this is even more imperative for prospect analysis. Even with various data translation factors, it is still remarkably difficult, and possibly foolish, to try to compare an 18-year-old playing in the KHL to an 18-year-old playing in the USHL by only using data.

For this reason, I spend a lot of my free time hunting down various steams, clips, videos, shift-by-shift reels etc. to gain a variety of viewings of as many prospects as I can. However, at the end of the day, I am not a full time scout, so while I do my best to get as much traditional scouting in as possible, there is only so much I can do in my free time. I’m not saying this to try to couch my rankings or discourage you from trusting me; I’m confident in my rankings and I do believe they can be helpful to you. I just think it’s imperative to be transparent with all of you, and not pretend to be something that I am not.

One last note before diving into my rankings: I firmly believe that placing prospects into tiers are far more valuable than simply ranking them 1-62 (or however deep the rankings go). Often, there is very little differentiating a wide range of players in a set of draft ranks, and it can be misleading to only have numeric ranks. In my rankings, the tier a player is in is far more than important than the numeric ranks, and you could reasonably argue any ordering of the players on the same tier. Sure, the numeric ranks indicate slight preferences I have between the players on the same tier, but they are all roughly the same caliber of player in my opinion.

My first tier—Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko—are clearly the prizes of this draft and I believe both have the ability to become franchise players and perennial all stars. The second tier—Alex Turcotte, Trevor Zegras, Bowen Byram, Dylan Cozens and Peyton Krebs—I believe will all have long, successful and impactful NHL careers, and have varying abilities that, depending on your preferences, could lead to them being ranked in any order. If the Rangers were to land the third pick, I’d personally like to see them go with Turcotte, who is fantastically gifted and perhaps the most complete forward in the draft (beyond the top two of course) or Zegras, who is a phenomenal playmaker, a dynamic talent and truly has the ability to elevate the play of everyone on his line. That said, you won’t see my crying if they go Byram–who is clearly the best defenseman in the draft in my opinion—Cozens—the WHL scoring leader in this class and a physical specimen who posses a dynamic and full skill set—or Krebs—a talented and complete player who is in the argument for the best playmaker and best ice vision in the draft class.

My third tier consists of players I believe possess the raw ability to end up being just as good as the players I have in my second tier, but they also each have a limitation or risk that I do not believe exists with the players in my second tier. I wouldn’t fault a team for taking any of these players in the top-7, but I also wouldn’t be stunned if any of them drop out of the lottery.

Arthur Kaliyev is perhaps the most polarizing player in the draft, and I’ve seen him ranked as high as 4 and as low as in the 30s. Statistically, he perhaps has had the most impressive season of anyone in this draft class, as evidenced by the fact that he has the highest NHLe of any player in this class in Will Scouch’s NHLe model. That said, even though I believe the concerns about his compete level and poor play off the puck are exaggerated, they cannot be completely ignored. Personally, I think a good coach can get the most out of him at the pro level, so I’ve only dinged him a tiny amount in my rankings, but I do understand while a number of more traditional pundits feel this is a bigger red flag than I do.

Vasili Podkolzin is a guy I am lower on than traditional draft pundits—who almost unanimously have him as the 3^rd ranked prospect—but I’m higher on than many of my peers who spend a lot of time on prospect data analysis. He reminds me a lot of Casey Mittlestadt in that his play in national tournaments has been phenomenal and he puts up some of the best highlight reels in the draft class, but his league play, which I feel is far more important than national tournaments, has been underwhelming. He’s the guy whose eye test far outweighs his production, but at the end of the day his production in league play is low enough where I think it is inappropriate to completely ignore it. Yes, he bounced from league to league which results in small sample sizes across multiple leagues, thus making it even more difficult to interpret his numbers, but that doesn’t mean his lack of production can be completely ignored. I agree that his eye test is impressive—if it wasn’t I wouldn’t have him in my first round as his numbers are not on the level of most first rounders—but I personally feel people are overstating how good his tape is. I respectfully disagree with those that feel his tape is so great that it overcomes his lack of production enough to warrant placing him ahead of guys like Alex Turcotte, Trevor Zergras, Dylan Cozens etc., all of which I believe have comparably strong eye tests. All that said, there is certainly considerable upside to Podkolzin based on his talent alone, and I won’t fault a team for taking him high in the draft.

Newhook is an explosive player who put up incredible production in the BCHL, which is considered a lesser league to the CHL leagues and he also has had poor showings in some of the higher profile games he’s played in outside of league play. Dach is a gifted player who had an incredible start to the season, but cooled off around the midpoint of the season and has real questions about his compete level. Cole Caufield is in the argument with Arthur Kaliyev for the most gifted goal-scorer in this class, but at 5’ 7’’ and just shy 160 lbs, he definitely will need to get on that Martin St. Louis leg workout regimen to ensure he isn’t too easy to push around on the ice.

My fourth tier is similar to my third, in that each player has the ability to become a true impact player in the NHL, but I have enough questions or concerns about elements of their game or track record that prevent me from having them higher. At lucky number 13 I have Matthew Boldy, who is a gifted, powerful and versatile player that has proven he can play anywhere in the USNTDP lineup and is closer the NHL ready than perhaps anyone outside of the top few guys, but I’m just not convinced that he has the same level of raw ability as the other top players, so I have him a bit lower than many.

My 14^th ranked player is the official 2019 winner of the Ty Smith Memorial Trophy, which is awarded to the player that I most adamantly feel is being under-ranked by many in the prospect analysis community, and who I will badger everyone on Twitter about being a great prospect from now until the end of time: Pavel Dorofeyev. Dorofeyev absurdly was ranked in the 60s in Bob McKenzie’s scout poll rankings earlier this year, and I am adamant that he belongs in the lottery conversation. Dorofeyev lit up the MHL with 17 goals and 14 assists in only 19 games—production that far exceeds anything more highly touted prospect Vasili Podkolzin did in the same league—before rightfully being promoted to the KHL. While he only put up 2 points in 27 games (including the playoffs) in the KHL, he absolutely looked like he belonged among the much bigger, stronger and more talented men (relative to the MHL) he was playing against. This is evidenced by the face that his ice time rose from 7:40 a game in the regular season, a typical low number for a teenager in the KHL, to 9:27 a game in the playoffs. While 9:27 is still not massive ice time, the nearly 2-minute increase in time during the most important time of the year certainly shows that he grew on his coaches.

Dorofeyev is a player that can do it all in my opinion. He’s excellent in transition and the offensive zone, but can also hold his own on defense. Despite his thin frame and current lack of strength, he plays with an edge and has a motor that never stops. He’s a balanced skater with decent speed and good edgework, and he’s excellent on and off the puck. Most impressively, he can playmake for his teammates, but also has one of the more deceptive shots in this draft class, and has the ability to go from skating to snapping off a quick writer in no time at all. He will need to add some strength and is one of the older players in this class, but overall, I think he’s an excellent prospect and I wouldn’t be mad at all if a team took a shot at him in the back end of the top-10.

Bobby Brink, Ryan Suzuki and Victor Söderström round out my fourth tier. Brink had a breakout year for the Sioux City Musketeers of the USHL, putting up 34 goals and 31 assts in 41 games. He is a balanced player that can playmake and score, and despite his relatively small size he has absolutely no fear driving to the net and finishing off plays. The concerns with Brink largely lie in the fact that this year was a big breakout year, and the USHL doesn’t have the same track record of producing high end NHL talent as the CHL. That said, I think he could prove to be an absolute steal in the middle of the first round.

Suzuki is one of the more cerebral players in the class, sporting a high IQ which is evident every time you watch him. The guy flat out rarely makes mistakes and has an excellent ability of always knowing where his teammates are frequently will pass up the good, easy play for the better play. Victor Söderström might be my personal favorite defenseman to watch in this draft class, as he reminds me a lot of Anton Stralman. He’s great in transition and possess great offensive and defensive instincts. He’s a guy that possesses the skill set that could lead to him being a shutdown penalty killer or a power play contributor. His combination of skating, work ethic, puck carrying ability, great shot and quick decision making I believe will lead to him being a very strong defenseman for a long time in the NHL.

My fifth tier consists of seven high-end producers, all of which are a joy to watch. There’s been a lot of talk about this draft not being as strong as 2018, and while this is true, this tier here is proof that this draft is still plenty strong. Jakob Pelletier, Nicholas Robertson and Nils Höglander all measure up at only 5’ 9’’, but teams would be silly to let that deter them from taking them in the first round. Pelletier finished the season with the second most primary points per-game in the draft class among his QMJHL peers with 1.0, and comfortably leads the class in expected goals per-game with 0.52. His tape is equally impressive, as he is an explosive and dynamic player with excellent playmaking ability and a non-stop motor.

Nic Robertson, whose older brother Jason is a strong prospect for the Dallas Stars, is a skilled and lightning fast winger and one of the youngest players in the draft. He possesses a good combination of playmaking and scoring ability, but needs to work on his defensive awareness a bit to truly become a great player. Höglander is a guy that plays much bigger than his size, as his motor and aggressiveness really stand out when you watch him play against men for Rögle BK in the SHL. He’s not all motor however, as he features a well-rounded skillset that includes fantastic acceleration, quick decision making, good stickhandling and a quick and accurate shot.

This tier also includes two top OHL producers in Connor McMichael and Phillip Tomasino, as well as two highly skilled defenseman with the upside to potentially be taken higher in the draft in Thomas Harley and Ville Heinola. McMichael and Tomasino rank second and third among OHLers in this draft class in primary points, with 63 and 58, respectively. Both also are among the OHL leaders in expected goals per-game, as McMichael ranks second in the draft class with 0.37 while Tomasino is sixth with 0.31. Both McMichael and Tomasino drip talent, but McMichael’s game is more predicated around his vision, IQ and two-way ability while Tomasino is more of an explosive talent with fantastic skating and motor.

Thomas Harley is second to only Bowen Byram in this draft class in Will Scouch’s NHLe metric and he is far and away the OHL leader of his draft class in primary points for a defenseman with 32 in 68 games. Harley is a big but mobile defenseman with excellent offensive instincts and abilities, a heavy shot and also is more than competent in his own zone. Ville Heinola has put up equally impressive production and game tape, especially when you consider he’s playing in the Finnish pro league, amassing 14 points in 34 games with Lukko. Heinola plays a modern game, and is an excellent possession-style defenseman who excels with offensive zone cycles. He’s great in transition and is calm and collected with the puck on his stick, but he will need to work on his strength in order to succeed in his own zone in the NHL, as there are games where he noticeably gets pushed around too easily.

After the firth tier is where things really start to open up for me. While I have my thoughts on where players should slot in and preferences with whom I prefer, fact of the matter is once you hit around this point in the draft, you can realistically make an argument for about 20-30 different players to round out the first round. From here on out in the article, I’m going to highlight one or two guys in each tier that I personally prefer, and feel fans should keep a particular eye on.

My sixth tier consists of 11 players, spanning from 25-35 and including some highly touted prospects like Cam York, Philip Broberg, Anttoni Honka and Raphael Lavoie. I do want to focus on two guys who haven’t been as highly touted here, but I feel absolutely belong in the conversation here: Lassi Thomson and Albin Grewe. Albin Grewe is a very gifted winger who can also play center that is currently playing for Djurgårdens IF J20 team in the Swedish SuperElit league, but he’s also gotten time with the team’s pro club in the SHL. He’s put up 34 points in 25 games for the J20 team, which helped to earn him the highest NHLe of any Swedish forward in this class according to Will Scouch. He is a truly dynamic offensive talent who has incredible stickhandling highlight reels, plays a fast game and will be a real threat on the powerplay in the NHL. His one knock is he sometimes harnesses his energy and compete in the wrong way, a bit like Chris Kreider if you ask me, which has led to him taking far too many penalties, racking up 102 PIMs in just 25 games for the J20 team.

Lassi Thomson, a Finnish defenseman playing for a poor Kelowna Rockets team in the WHL, is a well-rounded defenseman who is great in transition, and has in fact become well known for leading end-to-end rushes, with good stickhandling and an absolute bomb of a shot. He’s the type of player that has had very strong production—second to only Bowen Byram is primary points for WHL defenseman in this class—but his game tape is even more impressive.

Tier seven is a very diverse group, spanning ranks 36-47 and including a player from every position and players from representatives from six different countries. Many will argue I have Spencer Knight too low, and they may end up being right, but I treat goalies in the NHL draft similarly to how I treat running backs in the NFL draft: I have very little interest in taking them high when I know there will be plenty of very good ones available later. Spencer Knight undoubtedly is a fantastic goalie prospect, but to be frank, I don’t think he’s THAT MUCH better than a guy like Dustin Wolf or Ilya Konovalov, both of who can be had much later in the draft.

Vladislav Kolyachonok and Alex Beaucage are two guys I’d like to highlight here, both of who I think would be great picks at this point in the draft. Kolyachonok is a native of Belarus and is a complete, two-way defenseman. He is an adept skater, whose speed in particular stand out while watching him, and he seems calm, collected and most importantly, comfortable, with the puck on his stick both in transition and in the offensive zone. While he is more than capable in his own zone, in my opinion at least, he does need to work on his physicality, especially along the boards, and positioning to truly excel. It appears to me that sometimes he relies on his skating too much, which occasionally manifests itself as him chasing the play in his own zone. Beaucage had an extremely productive season playing on the wing for a talented Rouyn-Noranda team in the QMJHL, with 39 goals and 40 assists in 68 games, and two points through two playoff games at the time I’m writing this. He has a good combination of size and skill, measuring at 6’ 2’’ and 192 lbs and possessing a balanced suite of offensive tools that includes a fantastic shot and above average playmaking abilities and stickhandling. His biggest weakness is definitely his skating however, and while it certainly can be improved, it definitely is the biggest factor holding him back from going much higher in the draft.

My eighth and final tier spans all the way from rank 48 to the end of the second round. Actually, in my document that I use to track all my notes, stats and constantly am updating my rankings, this tier actually expends to rank 70, and also includes Vladislav Firstov, Cole Moberg, Ryan Johnson, Dillon Hamaliuk, Artemi Knyazev, Valentin Nussbaumer, Nikola Pasic and Blake Murray. One player I’d like to highlight in this range is winger Yegor Serdyuk. Serdyuk is a 5’ 11’’, 165-pound winger from Russia that played this past season with the Victoriaville Tigres of the QMJHL, where he posted 25 goals and 40 assists in 63 games. Serdyuk possesses a lot of skill and boasts great hands and agility that really stand out when you watch him. While he doesn’t shoot as often as I’d like, he has an impressive wrist shot and perhaps is most impressive attribute is his ice vision, as he is routinely able to pass his linemates open, similar to what a star QB does with his receivers. He also had 9 points in 6 games playing for Russia’s U-17 squad in internation play. Serdyuk does need to work on his strength and his attentiveness in my opinion, as sometimes he can look a bit aloof when he’s not on the puck, but I don’t personally feel either is a real serious concern. Serdyuk could potentially be a real steal for a team in the mid to late second round in my opinion.

Note – Rich only ranks skaters, and does not include goalies. 

Note – The featured image used in this article is courtesy of NHL.com.