2019 NHL Draft Rankings – Final Edition

It’s June, the days are long, the weather is (finally) warm, so naturally it’s time to talk about ice hockey! Specifically, the draft is only a few weeks away, taking place on June 21 and 22 in Vancouver, so we at Blueshirts Breakaway have your back and are hear to arm you with the final edition of our 2019 NHL draft prospect rankings. Our last rankings were published on the night of the draft lottery (April 9), and since then we have had league play playoffs and multiple international tournaments to help round out our final prospect rankings and analysis.

Below, you will find rankings from myself (Drew Way) and fellow prospect analysts and enthusiasts George Obremski and Rich Coyle. Rich, George and I all have very different methodologies when approaching our draft research, analysis and rankings, which are reflected in the ranks. Our hope is that presenting you with ranks from three very different people can help provide you with some alternative perspectives to help round out your own research. Along with the individual rankings, which go two rounds deep, we each provide write-ups discussing our rankings and methodologies. One last note before we begin: unless otherwise stated, all player demographic data is courtesy of eliteprospects.com.

One quick note before getting to my rankings table: I made the last-minute decision to remove goalies from my analysis. Spencer Knight is the only goalie I hate ranked in the first two rounds, and in general I tend to rank goalies significantly lower than where they inevitably will be drafted because I feel there is so much more inherent risk in drafting them due to their much more unpredictable development curves. Also, I’m a big advocate of being open and transparent about your strengths and weaknesses when doing this type of analysis, and I admittedly do not know enough about what it takes to be a successful NHL goaltender to feel very confident about analyzing goalie prospects. For those reasons, my rankings do not include goaltenders.

Also, as I’ve stated countless times over the years, I’m a massive advocate of placing prospects into tiers. One thing Corey Pronman of The Athletic does is go one step further and define what each of his tiers means. I’ve received some feedback over the past year that some folks would like me to do this as well. Well, consider me a man of the people, so I will be defining what I feel each tier represents in terms of the quality of prospects that comprise it.

Tier 1 – Elite Prospects: My first tier consists of Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko, both of whom I view as “elite” prospects. By this I mean they are players I view that have the potential to be perennial all stars and franchise players, but are one tier below the generational level that I’d place a Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby on. By now you’ve all probably heard enough analysis of Hughes and Kakko to last a lifetime, so I’ll keep this short and sweet. To me, this is a true 1a and 1b scenario, and the Devils and Rangers can’t go wrong with either. I view them as equivalent players and give Hughes the tiniest of advantages simply because he’s a center and that position inherently is more valuable in the NHL than wing. Sure, Kakko can play center, which increases his already high stock even more, but I think he’s more suited on the wing.

Tier 2 – Potential All Star Prospects: My second tier consists of three players—Alex Turcotte, Trevor Zegras and Bowen Byram—that I believe have all star potential, and I project to be top line/pair players. Again, I’ll keep it short and sweet with this tier, and most of you probably already have had your fill hearing about these guys. Long story short, Alex Turcotte might be the single most complete player in this entire draft class, Zegras is the most creative and gifted playmaker not named Jack Hughes and is also a gifted two-way player, and Bowen Byram is comfortably the best defenseman in the class who is extremely gifted offensively and better than he gets credit for defensively.

Tier 3 – Great Prospects: My third tier includes 10 prospects, all of which have high ceilings and I believe will likely play impactful top line roles in the NHL: Dylan Cozens, Kirby Dach, Peyton Krebs, Alex Newhook, Arthur Kaliyev, Matthew Boldy, Cole Caufield, Pavel Dorofeyev, Vasili Podkolzin and Bobby Brink. I obviously have my preferences among the players in this group, but overall I feel all of them project to be impactful players in the NHL. Podkolzin, one of the more polarizing prospects in this class, I feel is by far the biggest boom or bust candidate in this group, as his highlight reels are as impressive as anyone in this draft class and is an undoubtedly skilled player with a motor that never stops. However, he also has very poor league play production for a prospect of his caliber, had what I felt was a relatively underwhelming showing at the most recent U18 international tournament and has a penchant for losing his composure a bit when he gets angry, leading to a poor and undisciplined penalty. I want to make it clear that I agree he is a very gifted player, but I feel he has comfortably the most room between his floor and ceiling among any of the players in this tier.

Pavel Dorofeyev is a guy I’ve been campaigning for all year, and I awarded him with the 2019 Ty Smith Memorial Trophy, which is awarded to the player that I most adamantly feel is being under-ranked by many in the prospect analysis community, and who I will badger everyone on Twitter about being a great prospect from now until the end of time. It actually warms my heart to see that in the past few months, many have seen the light on Dorofeyev, and I now frequently see him ranked in the first round, and sometimes even the lottery. I’ve spent enough time talking about Dorofeyev this year, but for those of you new to my work, here is my elevator pitch on him. Pavel Dorofeyev is a highly talented player that has a mature game, a strong motor and one of the best shot releases in this draft class. He certainly needs to add strength, which is true of most teenagers, but he’s a strong and balanced skater, adept playmaker, good puck mover and responsible defender. He’s a jack of all trades that also has mastered a few skills, particularly his shot, and he’d make an excellent addition to any team’s prospect pool.

I’m sure Rich will go on about Kaliyev, and I suspect George will speak about Caufiled, but before moving to my fourth tier I’d like to highlight one player that I’ve come to appreciate much more since my April rankings: Matthew Boldy. In April I had him ranked 13, which is only a couple spots lower than I have him ranked now (11), but in April I felt those touting him as a top-10 guy were overrating him and placing too much emphasis on his perceived NHL readiness and physicality. However, at the suggestion of a few folks I trust a lot in the prospect community, I took a closer look at Boldy’s tape and his analytics, and came away very impressed. I found myself agreeing with the traditional pundits that wax poetic about his adaptability and the way he succeeds, but more importantly helps his linemates succeed, in any and all situations.

What really convinced me however is when I then went and viewed his statistical profile on Mitch Brown’s fantastic CHL Comparison Tool, and saw that he ranked in the 90^th percentile or above among the hundreds of players tracked by Mitch in across 9 important categories, including expected goals per-60, high danger shots per-60, expected primary assists per-60, forechecking zone entries per-60 and both Corsi for and against per-60. Long story short, being great in all of those statistics confirms what my eyes saw: a very talented and versatile player that can help a team in a variety of ways across all situations.

Tier 4 – Very Good Prospects: I believe the following 11 prospects on this tier project to be a top-6 forward or top-4 defenseman, with enough upside to play higher up the lineup if all goes right in their development: Phillip Tomasino, Ville Heinola, Nils Höglander, Ryan Suzuki, Nicholas Robertson, Victor Soderstrom, Cam York, Moritz Seider, Jakob Pelletier, Phillip Broberg and Thomas Harley. Given the fact that this tier stretches from 16-26 in my ranks, it is likely that one or two will fall into the second round of the draft, but I firmly believe all possess true first round talent.

When Ranger fans ask me who I’d like the Rangers to target at 20, my answer is this: anyone that I have ranked in my first four tiers. If nobody from my first three tiers falls to 20, I believe this group you are looking at here very well may contain the player the Rangers take at 20. Nils Höglander in particular I believe embodies many attributes that make him a guy I could see the Rangers targeting here. Höglander has a well-rounded and high-tempo style of game, and I don’t view him to have any real holes in his game. He is comfortably in the conversation for best hands in the entire draft class, and can both dish and receive passes as well as anyone. His ability to puckhandle in traffic combined with vision and passing ability makes him a phenomenal playmaker, and this style of game will suit him well as he transitions to the smaller ice surface of the NHL.

One other player I’d like to highlight in this class is Nick Robertson, as I feel he’s a phenomenally gifted playmaker that is underrated by many traditional pundits due to his relatively small stature—5’ 9’’ and 161 lbs—and the fact that he played for Peterborough in the OHL, who had an uninspiring season that was made to look more respectable by a hot finish. In my opinion, Robertson in among the more dynamic players outside of my first three tiers, and his combination of elite puck skills, excellent shot and high-end intelligence makes him as dangerous as they come in the offensive and neutral zones. His tracking data courtesy of Mitch Brown is also phenomenal, registering 95^th percentile and above placements in 6 of the tracked categories, including shots per-60, primary shot assists per-60, controlled zone entries per-60 and Corsi for per-60.

Tier 5 – Good Prospects: This tier consists of 10 players that I am confident will all make the NHL and have solid careers, but they have a wide range of potential outcomes. They all are talented prospects who can find themselves have long, impactful careers playing at the top of the lineup if their development goes properly, but also carry enough risk that I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking them until the latter portions of the first or early second round. These 10 players include Samuel Poulin, Raphael Lavoie, Connor McMichael, Simon Holmström, Albin Grewe, Patrik Puistola, Samuel Fagemo, Tobias Björnfot, Lassi Thomson and Anttoni Honka.

Simon Holmström is my personal favorite of this bunch, as he is a very gifted Swedish winger who coming into the year was widely seen as a potential lottery pick, but multiple injuries derailed his season and he’s seen his stock fall considerably, including hip surgery, a torn thumb ligament and a concussion. While these injuries certainly may be a concern for some, his talent is undeniable and would be well worth the risk towards the end of the first round. Hell, I wouldn’t even be mad if the Rangers took him at 20; that’s how much I believe in his talent. He is a smooth and agile skater with excellent vision and passing skills who also can put the puck in the net himself as he possesses a very quick release and accurate shot. Despite not playing an overly physical game, he has a good motor and is a capable defender, and I believe he will translate into a strong two-way player at the NHL level.

Samuel Poulin is another I want to quickly highlight before moving onto my next tier, and he is one of the guys that I have come to appreciate a lot more since my last rankings in April. He doesn’t have any blatant flaws in his game, and as the season went on he seemed to become more confident, and with that came an added level of dynamic play I hadn’t seen before. He has a balanced suite of skills in the offensive zone, possessing a very strong wrist shot and a lot of playmaking ability and creativity, helping him finish 3^rd among QMJHL skaters in primary points, with 62 in 67 games. His tracking data from Mitch Brown was also stellar, placing in at least the 97^th percentile in all four shooting attributes and at least in the 92^nd percentile in three of the four passing attributes.

Tier 6 – Legitimate Prospects: My sixth tier I define exactly the was Corey Pronman defines his fifth tier: “projects to be a regular player in the league, likely in a bottom half of the roster role. A prospect who I would endorse using a second-round pick on.” For me this description fits 14 players, who possess a wide range of abilities and potential outcomes: Nathan Légaré, Yegor Afanasyev, Ryan Johnson, Vladislav Kolyachonok, Matthew Robertson, Mikko Kokkonen, John Beecher, Albert Johansson, Jamieson Rees, Robert Mastrosimone, Brayden Tracey, Maxim Cajkovic, Marshall Warren and Dominick Fensore.

Marshall Warren and Dominick Fensore both increased their stock in my eyes with their play in the most recent U18 tournament. While I try to not overreact to these tournaments, Warren and Fensore both looked good enough that it made me reconsider my rankings on them, so I went back and did more digging and viewed a handful of prior games and found myself liking each more and more with each viewing. Both are on the smaller side for defenseman, Warren measuring at 5’ 11’’ but only 168 lbs and Fensore standing only 5’ 7’’ and weighing in at 154 lbs. Both are fantastic skaters and look very comfortable with the puck on their sticks, and Fensore found himself quarterbacking the USNTDP’s second power play unit, with Cam York running the top unit. Both Warren and Fensore generate a ton of shots and expected goals for the team, and the tracking data for each proves they are gifted puck movers and enter the offensive zone with efficiency and ease. Obviously they both have areas of their games they need to improve, hence the second round grade, but I think any team should be happy drafting either player in the second round.

John Beecher is another USNTDP player whose stock rose for me over the past couple of months. At first I thought he was a guy whose ability primarily resided in the fact that at 6’ 3’’, 209 lbs, he was simply bigger and stronger than most of the competition he was facing. However, the more I watched and the more I research, the more I saw that there is a very talented player there who also so happens to by a physical freak. He is a fantastic skater, particularly for a center his size, and his skating more than anything helped to generate chances for him and his line over and over again. He has decent playmaking abilities and a good enough shot, but to me his game projects more as a do-it-all third liner who also can anchor a PK than a guy who will be tearing it up on the PP. While that may not sound like the highest of praise, when you consider the likelihood of second rounders being impactful players in any fashion is pretty low, that in fact is high praise for Beecher.

Tier 7 – There is Something There: My final tier includes 12 players that made the cut in my top-62 rankings, but on my full spreadsheet where I track players and data, it actually extends well into the third round and includes 30 total players. In my opinion, all of the players on this tier possess the skill set to make the NHL and become regulars in the league, however they also have significant enough flaws or holes in their game where I wouldn’t be surprised if they never have a meaningful NHL career. The 12 that made the cut in my top-62 rankings include: Nolan Foote, Jordan Spence, Ethan Keppen, Brett Leason, Alex Beaucage, Yegor Spiridonov, Henry Thrun, Alex Vlasic, Drew Helleson Karl Henriksson, Xavier Simoneau and Daniil Misyul. Additional players on this tier that I have in my third round, but would have no problem if a team took them towards the mid/end of the second, include: Nikita Alexandrov, Nikola Pasic, Matias Maccelli, Adam Beckman, Tuukka Tieksola, Zachary Jones, Dillon Hamaliuk, Artemi Knyazev, Billy Constantinou, Yegor Serdyuk, Ilya Nikolayev, Daniil Gutik, Michael Teplý, Justin Bergeron, Graeme Clarke, Shane Pinto, Vladislav Firstov, Ryder Donovan and Semyon Chisyakov.

Two players I’d like to highlight from this list are Jordan Spence—who was shown being interviewed by the Rangers in the combine video they tweeted out—and Yegor Spiridonov, teammate of my boy Pavel Dorofeyev. Spence is a talented offensive-minded defenseman for Moncton in the QMJHL that led all first-year draft-eligible defensemen in the league by a comfortable margin in primary points with 32 in 68 games, and placed second among all defensemen in this draft class, behind only overager Justin Bergeron. He also placed second among first-year draft-eligible defensemen in expected goals per-game, behind only Artmei Knyazev, whom also is on this tier. Spence is smart and patient with the puck on his stick, and he’s very comfortable transitioning the puck out of his D zone and into the offensive end. His combination of vision and puck skills helped him effectively QB the powerplay for Moncton, and I believe these skills can definitely translate to the NHL.

Yegor Spiridonov put up nearly a point-per-game playing alongside Pavel Dorofeyev for Magnitogorsk in the MHL, and the team looked dominant every time their line was on the ice. Spiridonov is a gifted two-way center who effectively uses his length and strength to both defend and get to the front of the net on offense. While his high motor and physicality are perhaps the hallmarks of his game, he certainly possesses plenty of skill, as he is an above-average playmaker and has a great wrist shot that has plenty of power behind it. His skating leaves some to be desired, but in my opinion with a few technique adjustments this could definitely improve, as his stride appears short and clunky to me.

My methodology for ranking prospects is a bit different than Drew’s and Rich. While I did use analytics, I did not use it as much as Drew or Rich. The rankings I came up with was from hours of watching games and highlights of these prospects. Games and highlights are done with YouTube and other sources. I understand we’re moving into an era of analytics being used more in the NHL and view prospects so I plan to use it more in the future years.

These rankings are based on my own opinions and while your opinion might differ than mine, it’s important to have these different views on prospects to get an in-depth view on these kids.

Tier 1: (Jack Hughes- C, Kaapo Kakko- RW)

Two franchise altering players in this tier (trying to get away from “Generational” talent). Jack Hughes should go first overall leaving Kaapo Kakko to the Rangers with the 2^nd overall pick. Jack Hughes is more of a finesse type player while Kakko plays more physically and in your face.

Hughes is a dynamic playmaker center who is an amazing skater. A bit smaller, there are concerns with his ability to play in the NHL but he is such a good skater and is so elusive that there should be no issues. Hughes is always noticeable when he plays and you can see his skill, stickhandling, edgework, skating ability and speed at work. Because of his noticeability, he should go 1^st overall to New Jersey and could be the future 1C for the team for years to come.

Kaapo Kakko is the opposite of Hughes in that Kakko already has NHL size (at 6’2” and 190 Lbs.) and uses his physicality in his play more than Hughes. He is more of a goal score when comparing to Hughes and I’ve seen him being compared to Patrick Laine. However, I think he’s a bit more comparable to Aleksander Barkov as Kakko is a bit more of a complete player. Kakko did also break Barkov’s 22 goal record for 1 st year draft eligible players and is also a very good passer. Even with his larger frame, Kakko is a bit elusive and is a very good skater and can play well in tight-corners.

Tier 2: (Alex Turcotte- C, Bowen Byram- D)   

These two prospects are all can’t miss prospects and will be important parts of whatever teams draft them. Alex Turcotte is one of the most well rounded prospects and is someone who can do it all. Turcotte is a strong skater, high-end passing ability and strong on the fore-check. Even with missing a major part of the season & competing against so many centers in the National Development team (Hughes, Zegras, etc.), Turcotte should be the 2^nd center drafted due to his complete game he plays.

Bowen Byram is hands down the best defenseman in this year’s draft. He is strong at both ends of the ice and has high end offensive ability and is strong when under pressure. He is able to make strong 1^st passes to get out of the zone quickly which is something that teams look for in a defense. Byram should end up being a #1 defenseman on a team picking early and I have him going to Chicago even with the number of defensive prospects in their system. I believe Byram has a very good chance in making the NHL right out of his draft year but it wouldn’t hurt him playing an extra year in the WHL.

Tier 3: (Dylan Cozens- C, Cole Caufield- C/RW, Trevor Zegras- C, Kirby Dach- C)

Tier three has prospects who are top players in their respected leagues. All four can play center, with Caufield’s more natural position on the wing and they all have high end skill that should be able to translate to the NHL level in a few years. All four prospects are lethal in the offensive end and play differently to produce.

Cozens and Dach are a bit bigger and are closer to NHL size while Caufield and Zegras are a bit smaller but more elusive and are better skaters. Skating is an issue for Dach but for Cozens he’s a very good skater given his 6’3” height.

I will admit that there is some recency bias when it comes to Caufield with his U18 tournament play with 18 points (14 goals, 4 assists) in 7 games. He has elite level shot and is a very good skater with strong lower body that allows him to keep up even with his smaller size. Zegras isn’t as small as Caufield but still at 6’, he’s not the tallest and is a very good skater which allows him to elude defenders. His edgework and agility are elite and because of that he can change directions quickly. Zegras is by far one of the best passers in this year’s draft class and has high end vision and hockey IQ which allows him to set up his teammates.

Tier 4: (Matthew Boldy- RW, Peyton Krebs- C, Vasili Podkolzin- RW, Victor Soderstrom- D, Arthur Kaliyev- LW, Alex Newhook- C)

The drop between tier 3 and tier 4 is very small so I can see the argument to having players in tier 4 in the tier 3. I believe that Cozens, Caufield, Zegras and Dach will end up having better careers than the players in this tier. This is by no means a knock on these players as I believe they will all have solid NHL careers. This also includes Podkolzin, should he decides to come over from Russia. These prospects have high end to elite skill and will be able to be important parts of their respective teams in the future. It will be interesting to see if one or two of these prospects jump up and get picked before someone in tier 3.

Players in this tier have the offensive ability to be a game changer and take over a game. I believe that these players will be outstanding players in the NHL but I do have concerns with each of them. Each of them has things to work on and is a year or two away from the pros.

Tier 5:

The prospects in the 5^th tier are prospects that would fit right into the New York Rangers pick at 20. Prospects in this range include some of the better defensemen in the 2019 draft class but also includes forwards with some high upside and skills. Drew’s favorite Pavel Dorofeyev comes in at 15 and includes one of the smartest players in this year’s draft, Ryan Suzuki, and recent riser who was amazing in the World Championships as an 18 year old, Moritz Seider. These prospects will need two to three years before hitting the NHL level but could be solid pieces for any team in the near future.

If a prospect in the tiers three and four should drop, I would hope the Rangers would trade up using their pick 20^th overall and a 2^nd rounder to grab whoever it might be as there is a decent size drop from tier 4 to tier 5.

Tiers 6-8:

This is where things to get a bit crazy in this year’s draft as I’ve seen prospects in tiers six to nine are interchangeable. I believe players from tier six to eight could be drafted in the 1^st round or end up in the 2^nd round. In tier seven, I have goalie prospect Spencer Knight and wouldn’t be surprised if he jumps ahead of some in tier five or six and a team drafts him in the 1^st round (looking at Florida). There are many prospects in this range that have peaked my interest such as Jamieson Rees. Rees is not the offensive dynamite that everyone wants but he is a hardnose player that will grind it out to get the job done. Rees is strong on the fore-check and does play on the edge. Because of this, he can sometimes can get into penalty trouble but this is something that can be learned and changed. He stands at 5’10” which can be considered a bit short in hockey terms but he finishes his check and is more of a character player similar to Ryan Callahan or Brendan Gallagher.

As for my methodology behind my rankings, I am still relatively new to the advanced statistics/analytics world and in the process of learning about the different metrics and how to understand and interpret them for analysis. With that being said, I believe it is essential to use both the tape and data in my draft analysis. I do the best of my ability to get viewings on each and every single player in my rankings. Some leagues’ have tape that is easy to come by (like the MHL, all games are on  YouTube) whilst other leagues’ tape is difficult to come by. With that being said, all the hours of work done for the 2019 Draft has culminated into this ranking. Also to note, I only ranked skaters here and did not include goalies.

Tier 1 – My first tier is pretty obvious. There really isn’t much to be said here. There’s shouldn’t be doubt in anyone’s mind that Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko are the two best players  in the draft. Hughes was the consensus No. 1 for most of the season, but Kakko was really something else in the second half of the season. I think Kakko

Tier 2 – My second tier consists of guys who will be high-end to borderline elite NHL players.  Trevor Zegras, Alex Turcotte, Arthur Kaliyev, and Bowen Byram are the players I have in tier 2.

Trevor Zegras is a slick playmaker whose game is reminiscent of Jack Hughes in many regards. Zegras’ skating abilities are borderline elite. His straight line speed is good but his agility and edgework define him as a skater. Zegras, like Hughes and Turcotte, is an incredibly smart player. He reads the play and anticipates where his teammates will be, and generates quality scoring chances doing that. Zegras’ vision is excellent and he is probably one of the top-2/3 passers in the draft. I don’t think it’s very far-fetched calling Zegras’ the most creative playmaker in the draft. His shot isn’t his strength but his release will fool goaltenders. Being that Zegras’ spent most of his time playing with Hughes, he usually wasn’t the one making the exits/entries, but when he was, it was basically automatic. He is more than competent in his own zone but has a temper that does get him in trouble from time to time. A good stylistic comparison for him is Mat Barzal. May need a few years at BU to develop, but the 1C upside is there. Has connections with David Quinn and is someone I would keep an eye on as a candidate for the Rangers to trade up for if he drops out of the top-10.

Alex Turcotte is perhaps the most complete player in the draft. He is a highly skilled center that plays a refined two way game. In addition to being  one of the best skaters in the draft, Turcotte is one of the smartest players in the draft. He does a great job of reading the play and making plays based off of what he sees. Turcotte’s vision and playmaking ability will leave you in awe when you see some of the plays he makes at high speeds. He did a great job driving offense on an NTDP team loaded with stars. Turcotte missed a lot of games this season due to injury, but still put up great numbers this season. Teams may get turned off by the injuries he has sustained this season, but it doesn’t phase me. I think Turcotte will be an elite No. 1 center at his peak.

Arthur Kaliyev is someone I have rated a lot higher than the consensus. Many people consider him to be the most polarizing player in the draft. He put up 51 goals and 51 assists in 67 games in the OHL this past season. He is what I like to call a machine gun rather than a sniper (averaging 4.5+ sh/G) and has the best shot in the class. Playmaking isn’t Kaliyev’s niche, but he’s a pretty underrated playmaker as well. I have seen many in the community rank Cole Caufield much higher than Kaliyev in the past weeks, but Caufield was in a much better environment than Kaliyev this season. I think Kaliyev’s offensive output would be higher if the roles were reversed.

Kaliyev has been knocked for having effort and compete issues, but that claim is way overblown. However, there is some work that needs to be done in that regard. The most ideal situation for Kaliyev would be landing with a coach like Jim Montgomery or David Quinn, coaches who preach a culture in which effort is non-negotiable and will light a fire under your ass if necessary. I think Kaliyev has the potential to be an elite top line scorer in the NHL.

Bowen Byram is someone I was admittedly harsh on earlier this season. He didn’t impress me in the games I had watched of him earlier, and I had him ranked much lower then. After going through another couple of viewings, and witnessing the tear Byram went on in the 2nd half of the season, I will fully admit that is one of the worst takes I have ever head in my short history of prospect analysis. Byram is a smooth skating defenseman who brings an offensive prowess while not sacrificing too much defensively. He scored 26 goals this past season, and had a point on 31% of Vancouver’s goals this season. His main issue lies with him trying to do too much. I think that’s an easily correctable issue that will come with coaching and experience. He should be a high-end #1 defenseman at his peak.

Tier 3 – My third tier is comprised of prospects who could be in Tier 2, but have flaws or other issues that prevent them from being there.

Alex Newhook, a supremely talented center, is one of my favorite prospects in the draft. He combines his fantastic skating ability with amazing playmaking ability and hockey IQ. He posted a ridiculous 102 point season in the BCHL. However, due to his mediocre performance in prior international tournaments, there were concerns about his ability to play against elevated competition. The recent U-18’s in May should have erased any of those doubts, as Newhook had a great tournament. Newhook’s upsidel is off the charts, and I would not be surprised at all if he became a top-5, maybe even a top-3 player in this draft class when it’s all said and done. Newhook enrolls at Boston College in the fall, and I am intrigued to see how he performs in the NCAA.

Bobby Brink is another player I am a lot higher on than the general consensus. Brink is a highly skilled winger who was named USHL Forward of the Year after posting 35 goals and 68 points in 43 games for the Sioux City Musketeers this past season. I like to think of Brink as a dual-threat as a scorer. Brink’s overall offensive ability is remarkable. His ability to read the game is second to none. He is an incredible passer of the puck, but he also owns a good shot with a slick release that keeps the opposition honest. He brings a tremendous amount of effort and tenacity on every shift. What prevents Brink from being a tier 2 prospect is his skating. It is below average and he needs to significantly improve both his acceleration and top speed to reach the high ceiling that is there. Fortunately for him, he will be attending Denver University — which is a great spot for his development.

Dylan Cozens is a player that I have ranked lower than the consensus. I have seen many people have him in the conversation at pick No. 3, but that is a bit too high for me. Cozens has a big frame (6’3, 183lbs), but isn’t an overly physical player. Ideally, you’d like to see him use his size more to his advantage. When you combine his size with his elite skating abilities, the potential is there to be a dominant physical specimen in the NHL. Cozens has a great shot and is more of a “shoot first” guy but doesn’t have the highest of skill levels, which limits him as a playmaker. Cozens physical attributes make him a very intriguing prospect, but I just don’t believe Cozens has the upside as guys like Alex Turcotte and Trevor Zegras. I believe Cozens will be fixture in the top-6 of the team that drafts him for many years to come.

Cole Caufield is a player who has a knack for scoring goals. He’s a diminutive sniper (5’7 165lbs) who scored 72 goals this past season. With regards to his skating, he won’t blow you away. Caufield isn’t a very good skater, but he most definitely isn’t a bad skater. He has shown flashes of playmaking ability in the last two years, but not enough to warrant not being labeled as one dimensional. His ability to shoot the puck makes him as highly touted as he is. He’s got an elite shot with an ultra quick release — one of the best we’ve ever seen. All of the shots in his arsenal come with great power and are deadly accurate. The knocks on Caufield are due to his size (Who could’ve seen that coming?) and the fact that he played on a team of top prospects. The concerns about his size are a crock. As for him playing on a team of top prospects, it certainly didn’t hurt his offensive output. However, his ability to score goals is at such a high level that I wouldn’t put it past him to score 50+ goals on a team in the CHL. I think Caufield will be a prolific goal scorer in the NHL who pots ~40 goals per year.

Peyton Krebs is yet another very good center prospect in this draft. Krebs is a player who lacks size but makes up for it with his skating, skill, and compete level. He’s a great skater, albeit not an elite one, who uses his agility and elusiveness to maneuver around opposition players. His niche is playmaking — he’s one of the best in the class when it comes to passing. Krebs always knows where his teammates are and is often able to find the soft spots in the defense to generate his quality scoring chances. He’s probably not going to be known for scoring many goals at the next level. His shot is pretty average, and although he has a quick release — he only scored 19 goals in 64 games this season. Krebs’ effort and tenacity on every shift is next level and his hard work will earn him extra points. Another thing that needs to be noted with Krebs is the season he just had. On an absolutely terrible Kootenay Ice team (21st in the WHL), Krebs had 19g-49a-68p in 64 games played. Of the 181 goals that Kootenay scored this season, Krebs had a point on 37.6% of them, the highest percentage among draft eligibles in the WHL. In the end, I think Krebs ceiling will be that of an elite second liner or a low end first liner.

Kirby Dach is the third of the three highly rated forwards coming out of the WHL. Dach is a big playmaking center (6’4, 200lbs) who plays a game eerily similar to that of Anaheim Ducks forward Ryan Getzlaf. He has the potential to be a good skater, but he needs to improve his acceleration if that is to be the case. Dach is a quality playmaker who can be very fun to watch when he is on his game. His vision and passing is right up there with the best in the class. He shot is decent, but he could do with using it more. When he started shooting the puck more as the season went on, he started scoring more goals. As great as he sounds, It isn’t all sunshine and rainbows. From November till around January, Dach went AWOL. I caught one of Saskatoon’s games live back in December and Dach was just flat out terrible. He also seemed to lack compete and give minimal effort in that stretch where he was bad. Similar issues to that of Arthur Kaliyev but I feel that Dach warrants the criticism a little bit more. Dach had 24 games this season in which he was held without a point, including 7 games straight in December. By no means did he have a bad draft year, but when his season ended I was left wanting more. All in all, I think there is risk with Dach, but he undoubtedly has the highest upside among the WHL forwards. Will he hit his ceiling? It remains to be seen.

Tier 4 – My fourth tier consists of players who *should* be impact players at the NHL level. These players have holes/question marks in their game that prevent them from being ranked higher.

Nick Robertson is truly one of my favorite prospects eligible in the draft. He’s a smaller, very skilled, playmaker (5’9 170lbs), but I think I’ve made it clear that size doesn’t matter very much to me if a player can really play. Robertson can either score the goals, or he can set them up. He is a relentless player who brings 110% on every shift, and will sometimes get rewarded with an easy goal or an assist due to the tenacity he brings. Robertson’s raw point totals don’t look very inspiring, but he was the primary driver of Peterborough’s offense this season. Robertson is an average skater, and that is what keeps him from being a higher ranked prospect in my book. People seem to forget he’s only 4 days away from being eligible for the 2020 Draft. He seems like a player that David Quinn would love, for what it’s worth.

Pavel Dorofeyev is a Russian winger whom you all know Drew loves. Highly skilled player who is good at almost everything. Matthew Boldy is another highly touted forward out of the NTDP who has garnered a lot of hype from scouts, but I have concerns over whether he can create his own offense or not. Jakob Pelletier is a hard-working, playmaking winger who put together an impressive statistical profile in the QMJHL this past season. Moritz Seider and Ville Heinola are my top European defenseman. Seider is an impressive physical specimen with top-4 upside. Heinola is a smooth skating puck mover who also has top-4 upside. Ryan Suzuki and Phillip Tomasino are both Canadian playmaking centers with significant top-6 upside. Samuel Fagemo is an overage goalscorer in his D+1 who put together an impressive season for Frolunda in Sweden. Thomas Harley is an intriguing defensive prospect who oozes potential. Boom-or-bust type. Nils Hoglander is a quick winger who put up respectable numbers in Sweden despite playing limited minutes. Has some of the best hands in the draft.

Vasili Podkolzin is the most overrated prospect in the draft in my eyes. He’s a toolsy winger who really put his name on the map at last summer’s Hlinka-Gretzky tournament. He’s a fierce competitor who has a lot to his game. He’s a good skater who reaches his top speed extremely quickly. He’s got a good shot which he can use to wire pucks into the back of the net. He’s the most tenacious player in the draft, essentially a “bull in a china closet”. He’s gives 110% on every shift, gets involved in every puck battle, and never takes a second of a shift off. He has everything you want to see in a top-10 pick. Podkolzin is dominant in international tournaments but for whatever reason, he just can’t put it together in league play. Podkolzin has played in several different competitions this season, but hasn’t been particularly great in any of them. Podkolzin’s numbers in the MHL this season aren’t even on par with those of Pavel Buchnevich in his D-1. His production in the VHL was OK, but not was you’d expect from someone who has been hailed as the consensus No. 3 for pretty much the entire season. Podkolzin is also caught handling the puck with his head down a lot, and is going get himself seriously hurt if he keeps doing it. Significant risk here, but the risk will be well worth it if he pans out.

Tier 5 – My fifth tier consists of players who have a chance to be an impact player in the NHL, but have flaws/question marks in their game that prevent them from being there.

Cam York is a steady defenseman who anchored the NTDP’s blueline. Anttoni Honka is someone scouts have really cooled off on, but he might have the highest upside out of anyone in tier 5. Victor Soderstrom and Phillip Broberg both put together respectable seasons in the SHL and Allsvenskan, respectively. Yegor Afanasyev is a Russian power forward who put up good numbers in the USHL this past season. Lassi Thomson is a smooth skating, right shot defenseman who had a very good season in lieu of being on an absolutely dreadful Kelowna Rockets  team. Tobias Bjornfot is another two-way defenseman from Sweden with solid upside.

Samuel Poulin is a goal scoring winger who has already grown into a man’s body (6’2, 207lbs). His abilities as both a goalscorer and a playmaker make him an intriguing prospect. Poulin uses his NHL frame to his advantage, whether it is driving to the net in attempt to score, or on the forecheck trying to retrieve the puck. His shots pack the punch and are usually pretty accurate. If his skating was a little bit better, he’d probably be a top-20, maybe even a top-15 pick, so that is obviously something he needs to work on.

Artemi Knyazev is a prospect on my 5th tier who is among my favorite prospects in the draft. He’s a dynamic offensive defenseman with tremendous upside. If he improved his top speed, he’d be an elite skater. His puck skills and playmaking ability are VERY good for a defenseman. His defensive game is a work in progress, but so are those of most young defenseman.. I think there is serious NHL potential for Knyazev if he can’t fill in the holes in his game. He’s raw and will need time to develop., maybe another year or two in the QMJHL and a year in the AHL.

Brayden Tracey, Raphael Lavoie, and Connor McMichael round out tier 5. Tracey is a goal-scoring winger who compiled an impressive statistical profile in the WHL this past season. Lavoie is big center who plays a power forwards game, but there are questions about his upside. McMichael is a playmaking center who is good at everything, but not great at anything.

Tier 6 – My sixth tier contains 15 players and makes up the majority of my second round.  I’m not going to go through everyone in this tier, but rather highlight some players I think should have a close eye kept on them.

Robert Mastrosimone is a goal scoring forward who can play both at center and on the wing. He is a sniper with a very good shot. Mastrosimone hurled around 3 shots per game at goalies this season and his shooting percentage was near 20%. He does however need to round out the rest of his game. His skating isn’t bad, but there is definitely room for improvement. He isn’t the greatest of playmakers, and needs to improve things like his passing, but he certainly isn’t a one trick pony. If he becomes a more complete player, someone is going to end up with an absolute steal of pick with Mastrosimone.

It is very easy to see why Domenick Fensore (5’7 154lbs) has been overlooked this season. He is a pint size defenseman in an age where many old school hockey GMs still believe you need defenseman who are over 6 foot to win hockey games. Fensore might be one of the 5 best skaters in this draft class. He’s fantastic in transition and with making zone exits/entries. For someone his size, he’s defended relatively decent as well in the games I saw out of him. Obviously he’s going to have problems defending bigger players, but that just means he’s going to have to attack the weight room. Fensore actually had the second best season production wise among the NTDP defenseman, behind Cam York. He’s also just a few days short of being eligible for the 2020 Draft. He’s headed to Boston University where he might need the full 3-4 years of development in the NCAA before being NHL ready.

Mattias Maccelli is another one of my favorite prospects in this draft. He’s a highly skilled winger who played for Dubuque in the USHL this season. Maccelli is a great skater who is very elusive and good on his edges. He can score goals, and he can set his teammates up with quality scoring chances as well. His ability to stickhandle in tight spaces and make defenders look foolish is very fun to watch. What is even more impressive about Maccelli is the season he had in the USHL. He scored 31g-41a-72p in 62 games for Dubuque this past season. Of the the 192 goals Dubuque as a whole scored this season, Maccelli had a point on 37.5% of them. If he can round out his game and improve in the facets he struggles in, similarly to Mastrosimone, a team could be getting a steal in Maccelli.

Tier 7 – My seventh tier spans from the end of the second round into the middle of my third round (around 75ish). As is was with tier 6, I’m going to highlight some players from tier 7 that everyone should pay attention to.

Shane Pinto is yet another player coming out of the depthy USHL class in this draft. Pinto can play center and wing. He’s a very skilled player, but he’s also very raw. He plays a power game and scores a decent amount of goals but he isn’t a slouch as a playmaker either. He passing and vision is decent but could use some improvement. Before getting traded to Tri-City during the USHL season, Pinto was a one man show for the Lincoln Stars. He posted a line of 17g-15a-32p in 30 games played and was the sole driver of offense for that team. Pinto is another guy who could use a few years in college before he is NHL ready.

Nikita Alexandrov is someone who has really flown under the radar for a lot of people. He’s a highly skilled centerman who shows flashes of having high end skill, but is too inconsistent. He’s a good skater who gets to his top speed very quickly. He likes to drive the net not with power, but with jaw dropping oves and elusiveness. From there he can either score the goals himself or set his teammates up with some sweet dishes. When Alexandrov does what he is capable of, he looks like a surefire first round prospect. However, more often than not he is not doing what he is capable of. If he can develop some consistency to his game, Alexandrov has some solid upside.