Today, Drew and Shawn revisit this piece and discuss how they feel the team did relative to their return expectations. In this article, Drew and Shawn also provide their grades for each individual transaction based off of their initial returns expectations, and they also provide an overall grade for how they believe the front office did in total during the trade season. As always, we welcome your feedback, so feel free to leave a comment or message Drew and Shawn on Twitter to yell at them (or agree with them) about their analysis and grades.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2289″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][custom_headline type=”center” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Nick Holden[/custom_headline][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”2291″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Nick Holden was traded to the Boston Bruins for 24-year-old AHL defenseman Rob O’Gara and a 2018 third-round pick.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Drew[/custom_headline][text_output]Return Expectation: The Michael Stone return of a third-round pick and a conditional fifth, but I noted I’d be perfectly happy with recouping what the Rangers gave up for him two drafts ago: a fourth-round pick.
Actual Return Analysis: Holden yielded a package very similar to the Michael Stone return, but instead of a conditional fifth they received an AHL defenseman with limited upside (which is more or less what your typical mid-round pick turns into). Further, one additional advantage this trade has, is it frees up another spot for a kid to grab hold to and gain valuable NHL experience over the course of the remainder of the season. Overall, the trade met the higher end of my expectations and it removes one more of AV’s toys from the roster, so I was very happy with this deal.
Grade: A-[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Shawn[/custom_headline][text_output]Return Expectation: Give me back a fourth-round pick for him and I’ll drive him to the airport myself!
Actual Return Analysis: I was more than thrilled with this return. We turned Holden from a fourth-round pick, when the Rangers acquired him, to a third-rounder and a fringe NHL defensive player in O’Gara.
Do I think O’Gara deserves to be on the Rangers roster right now? No, at the time, before finding out that Ryan Graves was traded, I felt that Graves deserved to finally get his shot over O’Gara. Seeing how things turned out with Graves, it’s no surprise that the Rangers kept O’Gara on the big club. Hopefully thinking this is a temporary thing and O’Gara won’t see a minute of ice time next year, this is a good deal for the Rangers.
It’s worth noting that since the trade the total ice time for Holden in a Bruins uniform has been zero. So much for being safe and dependable.
Grade: B+[/text_output][custom_headline type=”center” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Michael Grabner[/custom_headline][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”2293″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Michael Grabner was traded to the New Jersey Devils for a 2018 second-round pick and 20-year-old KHL defenseman Yegor Rykov.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Drew[/custom_headline][text_output]Return Expectation: Somewhere between the Patrick Eaves return (conditional 2nd round pick that can convert to a first) at the low-end and at the high-end either an impact prospect or a package involving a 2nd or 3rd round pick and a strong prospect.
Actual Return Analysis: Grabner yielded a trade return right along the lines of what I was expecting, and I am very happy with that. I’m not going to sit here and claim that I’ve personally watched Rykov in the KHL and have all this analysis from breaking down game tape. However, what I can tell you is that I’m smart enough to know that this area of analysis is not my forte, but I am a great researcher, so I dug in and read up on Rykov from as many different sources as possible, ranging from Rangers-focused prospect experts such as Alex Nunn to national prospect experts such as Corey Pronman.
The conclusion I came to after researching Rykov fairly extensively is that he is a big, smart and well-rounded defenseman that skates well for his size and has put up assist numbers early on in his KHL career that would indicate a better-than-average level of passing acumen. Most analysts agree that he likely does not have top-pair upside, but he is a guy that, if he continues on his current development arch, could eventually slot into a second paring role. When you look at draft pick value analysis and see that a late first-round pick on average turns into a low-end NHL player, you realize that a prospect such as this to go along with a second-round pick is strong value for a player such as Grabner.
Grade: B+[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Shawn[/custom_headline][text_output]Return Expectation: Give me a second-round pick, because I feel teams are going to realize he’s a systems player.
Actual Return Analysis: The Rangers got a strong defensive prospect, who knows Igor Shestyorkin and future Ranger Ilya Kovalchuk (pains me to say that this is possibly happening), in Rykov.
I know there is some initial fear of him not coming over to the NHL when his KHL contract expires when coincidentally enough, Shetyorkin’s contract expires as well. Seeing Shetyorkin and possibly a good chance in seeing Kovalchuk over on the Rangers may make his transition smoother.
Oh, doesn’t hurt that Pavel Buchnevich, a fellow SKA alum and brief teammate of Rykov’s, is on the Rangers as well.
Sometimes it’s good to know people.
Grade: A-[/text_output][custom_headline type=”center” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Rick Nash[/custom_headline][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”929″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Rick Nash (50% salary retained) was traded to the Boston Bruins for a 2018 first-round pick, a 2019 seventh-round pick, Ryan Spooner, Matt Beleskey (50% salary retained) and 20-year-old defenseman Ryan Lindgren, who currently plays at the University of Minnesota.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Drew[/custom_headline][text_output]Return Expectation: In between the Patrick Eaves return at the low-end (conditional second-round pick that can convert to a first) and the Martin Hanzal return at the high-end (first-round pick, second-round pick and a conditional pick that had the ability to convert to as high as a second).
Actual Return Analysis: Wow, did the Rangers knock this one out of the park. The way I personally look at the deal, is the Rangers got a solid, albeit not elite defensive defenseman prospect in Ryan Lindgren and a first rounder for Rick Nash (50% salary retained), which would’ve been a very strong return in and of itself. However, Jeff Gorton got a bit creative here, and used his cap space to take on Matt Beleskey’s poor contract, which carries a cap hit of $3.8 million through the next two seasons, in return for a 2019 seventh-round pick and Ryan Spooner, who for the sake of quick and lazy analysis can be viewed as a poor man’s J.T. Miller and can play a middle-six wing or center role.
Given the rebuild route the Rangers are going, it was a very savvy move in my opinion to not only retain 50% of Nash’s salary (the maximum allowed under the CBA), but also take on a poor contract in order to obtain more assets. Similar to J.T. Miller, Ryan Spooner is an expiring RFA, who the Rangers can either re-sign in the offseason or flip for another asset. I’m a big fan of making moves that provide a team with more assets, options and flexibility, and this move did exactly that. This move also I believe helped to set the stage a bit for the blockbuster deal with Tampa Bay, which we will get to in a bit.
Grade: A[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Shawn[/custom_headline][text_output]Return Expectation: A conditional first-round pick, and a prospect and we’re good.
Actual Return Analysis: Wow. Just, I mean. Wow.
We got something good from the Bruins again, and it was over the span of a few days. Good for us. The Beleskey thing, is a whatever thing for me as the Rangers are just going to bury him in Hartford and ride out the days there, maybe move him to Arizona for something in the offseason to help them get to the cap floor or something.
With Spooner, we have someone who made J.T. Miller expendable. Meaning, we have our third line center for the foreseeable future (okay, so until the end of this year).
Getting a first-round pick and a highly touted defensive prospect, okay I can dig it. Listen, we need to see our prospect core get stronger. The more we do to help improve it, and to help it get better over the long run, the better it is for us.
There’s a strong possibility, like Grabner, that Nash returns during the free agency period. There’s also a strong possibility he doesn’t (cost reasons, amongst other things). So, it’s important not to look at this trade thinking we’re going to get him, and we’re going to get him right away. That is not the case. Personally, I’m under the impression if the Rangers want Kovalchuk as badly as Kovalchuk wants the Rangers, he won’t return.
Grade: A[/text_output][custom_headline type=”center” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]The Blockbuster: Ryan McDonagh & J.T. Miller[/custom_headline][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”2279″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller were traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning for a 2018 first-round pick, 2019 conditional second-round pick that becomes a first if Tampa Bay win the Stanley Cup in either of the next two seasons, Vladislav Namestnikov, 20-year-old WHL defenseman Libor Hájek and 19-year-old WHL center Brett Howden.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Drew[/custom_headline][text_output]Return Expectation: For Ryan McDonagh I listed a bunch of example trades, but more or less I listed the expectation as either a true blue chip prospect and a first-round pick, or a very good prospect, a first-round pick and another good prospect or pick. For J.T. Miller I set the price at “either a middle-six roster player and a first-round pick, or I would look for a pick and a high-end, close to NHL ready prospect.”
Actual Return Analysis: There is a whole lot to unravel here, and pundit opinions on the deal completely span the gamut. Greg Wyshynski was at the high-end of the analysis for the Rangers, giving the Rangers an A in his trade grades piece on ESPN and stating that the Rangers got “an absolutely staggering haul for Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller from a Stanley Cup-thirsty Lightning.” On the low-end, a number of Ranger fans across all forms of social media called the trade return various forms of “trash” and “horrendous,” and spent all afternoon screaming about the deal.
I will admit, when I initially heard the returns, I was a bit underwhelmed, especially because the manner in which the information leaked from the NHL insiders led me to (wrongfully) believe that Mikhail Sergachev likely could be coming the other way. However, once I took the time to digest it all and research all of the prospects involved, I came to the conclusion that it was a fair deal. Personally, I’m a fan of quality over quantity, so from that perspective I was still a bit disappointed that the Rangers didn’t get any true blue chippers in the deal, but the deal is a fair one for both sides.
First, let me start with something that Ranger fans think is a hot take, but I assure you it isn’t: J.T. Miller and Vladislav Namestnikov are roughly equivalent players. I could write an entire, multi-thousand word article to explain why I think that, at the very least, Namestnikov is an equivalent player to J.T., but let’s save that for another day.
For now, let’s just keep it simple. Both players are approximately the same age and about to be RFAs at the end of the season, and given recent production can probably command roughly equivalent next contracts. J.T. has a longer history of point production, and Namestnikov’s current great season production-wise is likely largely inflated by getting good run alongside elite players in Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. However, when you dig into the advanced stats, Namestnikov typically has much better impacts on his team with regards to shot generation and shot suppression. Lastly, when you look at one of my favorite stats, Dom Lusczyszyn’s Game Score per/60 across 5v5 play, it’s not even all that close. From the 2015-2016 season to present, J.T. Miller has a respectable Game Score per/60 of 1.47, while Namestnikov boasts a GS/60 of 2.13. For context, when you look at only this year’s numbers, Miller has a GS/60 of 0.99, while Namestnikov is at 2.28.
Ok, maybe I have a very different definition of “keeping it simple” than you do, but if you’ve read my work, you’ll know that is simple for me. Lastly, I reached out to Dom as well as Hockey-Graphs contributor Nick Mercadante and specifically asked their opinion on Miller vs. Namestnikov, and they both agreed that they prefer Namestnikov as a player over J.T. Miller. A number of additional hockey writers, analysts and fans weighed in on the debate across social media, and there is enough ammo on all sides of the debate to definitively state that, at the very least, the two players are within the same ballpark as one another in terms of overall ability and impact on the game.
So now, with the established premise that Miller and Namestnikov are roughly equivalent players, let’s strip them out and examine the rest of the deal: Ryan McDonagh for a 2018 first, a 2019 second that converts to a first with a Lightning Cup victory and two strong prospects in Libor Hájek and Brett Howden. This package, while it doesn’t contain the blue chipper that I really desired, is a fair offer. Based on the fairly extensive research I’ve done on the prospects since the trade, it seems that both Hájek and Howden are safe bets to make the NHL.
Hájek is a big, strong and smooth-skating Czech defenseman who was clearly one of the best players on the Czech team at the most recent World Juniors Tournament. The opinions on him seem to vary a bit as to his upside, but personally I project him to be a solid second-pairing guy, and I’d rank him as a slightly better caliber prospect that Yegor Rykov. He’s a tough and defensively responsible defenseman, but also has a bit of an offensive flair to his game, highlighted by a nice and accurate shot from the point.
Howden is a big, powerful center prospect who is a bit of a jack of all trades but master of none type. Many of his goals to this point in his career come off of getting to the net and creating havoc in front, and nobody would mistake him for a highly skilled dangler or sniper. However, despite his lack of dynamic ability, he still projects as a safe bet to be at least a strong, two-way 3C, with the upside to be a 2C. It should also be noted that Adam Herman noted in his excellent recent piece that Howden “diverges from the traditional power forward in that he is more of a playmaker than a scorer. He is a precise passer, and has a good feel for how to find players in scoring position.” This line here is why I lean more towards projecting Howden as a 2C than a 3C.
So, all in all, the Rangers did not get a true blue chip prospect in the deal, which because of my views that it is remarkably difficult to win a Cup in the playoffs without a true star, does disappoint me a bit. However, the Rangers did get two very strong prospects, multiple picks and a player that at the very least is equivalent to J.T. Miller for Miller and McDonagh. So while not the ideal haul, I personally feel it is a fair return.
Grade: B[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Shawn[/custom_headline][text_output]Return Expectation: Miller for a defensive minded two-way forward, and McDonagh would be traded for someone 1 for 1.
Actual Return Analysis: Good lord.
Greg and Ryan on the latest podcast, and then Greg yesterday summed up every possible emotion Ranger fans had when this trade when down. The highs and lows, the lowest of lows when we found out who the Rangers were exactly getting in a return for both men shocked the core of our fandom at first.
People couldn’t believe it. Namestnikov for Miller as it turns out is basically a wash, but we do get someone whose metrics are somewhat better.
Better yet, when you think about it we got two prospects, one who can slot in as a number four defenseman (in Hajek) and a player who has an upside as a Derek Stepan-lite in Howden (I expect the fanbase to hate him when he suddenly goes bald).
If this was the best deal on the table, then yes do it repeatedly.
If it wasn’t then Jeff, we need to talk.
Grade: B-[/text_output][custom_headline type=”center” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Overall Analysis[/custom_headline][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”1980″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Drew[/custom_headline][text_output]Despite being somewhat disappointed in not getting a blue chip prospect in the deal with Tampa Bay, overall I am very happy with the work Jeff Gorton and his team did during the month of February. He said the Rangers were going to rebuild, and the haul of assets the Rangers got in return for 3 impending UFAs, J.T. Miller and Ryan McDonagh should serve as a great foundation for that rebuild. All in all, here is what it all breaks down to:[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2295″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Even without the presence of a real elite future piece, that is a hell of a haul for a rebuilding team that provides the Rangers with a ton of flexibility and options going forward. Now, whether the Rangers can turn the ship around, and how quickly that takes, will depend on the team’s execution this offseason, during the draft and the following season. It is critical that the Rangers nail at least a couple of these picks and that they develop some of these prospects into bonafide NHL players, or all this would’ve all been for nothing. They can also package a number of these assets and move them to acquire an impact NHL player. As I’ve stated, the Rangers now have a number of options, and now the real work begins.
O, and one last thing; the Rangers need to move on from head coach Alain Vignealut and two of his key assistants, Lindy Ruff and Scott Arniel. Vigneault and Ruff have each independently proven over their tenures as coaches at various stops that they are not who you want leading your team through a rebuild. If I were Jeff Gorton, I’d fire the coaching staff (but keep Benoit Allaire of course), and I’d offer Toronto Marlies head coach Sheldon Keefe a blank contract, and allow him to fill in whatever terms it would require to bring him to Broadway.
Overall Grade for Jeff Gorton: A-[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Shawn[/custom_headline][text_output]Overall, this trade deadline was a success for the New York Rangers and most importantly, Jeff Gorton. As it pains for me to say it, he did a great job getting back assets for the future. Meaning that they’re serious about the rebuild, and even more serious about it being long-term.
It makes sense for the Rangers to reassess the future, reassess their current assets and figure out what is best for this team moving forward. While it would have been nice to see coach Alain Vigneault get traded to the moon for just moon juice, it makes sense why he’s still hanging around to finish this troubling season.
The Rangers need to figure out the next steps in this rebuilding process, what pieces they want to obtain at this year’s draft, not only with their first-round pick, but also for the two they have this year from Tampa and Boston.
Man it’s going to be so fun rooting for Tampa come playoff time.
Overall Grade for Jeff Gorton: A-[/text_output]
Author: BSB Staff
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